Economic Update: Fed Inaction Leads to Market Overreaction

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development

submitted by
Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

A few weeks ago, the Economic Update suggested that there was an outside chance for the first Federal Reserve cut to come in July, but more than likely we would see the first cut in September. After the last batch of key economic releases, the FedWatch Tool is now pricing, with 100% odds that the first cut will come in September. We predicted that cuts would then come again in November and December. Current probabilities are now pointing to cuts in November and December. Will the economy see a recession in 2024, or will it simply hit an expected soft patch? 

The odds of a September rate cut quickly changed with the release of the July employment report, coming in weaker than expected. The BLS reported that the nation’s economy added 114,000 jobs, far less than the expected level of 175,000. The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.3%. While the report showed that the labor market is weakening, as we have been expecting, the stock market reaction was probably an overreaction. Payroll growth slowed, but not far under what we would expect as normal job growth. The unemployment rate did notch upward, but a closer look suggests that the increase may not persist.     The number of unemployed increased by 352,000, and of this amount, 249,000 were on temporary layoffs. Without the large increase in temporary layoffs, the unemployment rate would have remained unchanged at 4.1%. 

One dynamic of the labor market over the past year has been the divergence between employment from the household survey and payrolls from the establishment survey. Employment from the household survey increased about 1.3 million (.8%) since last year, with some months showing declines. The establishment survey showed payroll growth at 2.4 million (1.5%), a difference of approximately 1 million. Historically, a divergence between these two series is usually followed by convergence. In the current state,  convergence would require either a slowdown in payrolls or an acceleration in employment. Last week’s report produced a slowdown in payrolls, perhaps the start of slower growth from the establishment survey. The report also showed a decline in weekly hours worked, and a small gain in average hourly wages.    

Following the report, expectations for a Fed cut in rates spiked. The FedWatch Tool is currently showing an almost even split between a reduction of a quarter or half a percent. Unless we get a much weaker payroll report for August, along with very soft inflation reports, the likely cut in September will be ¼% of a point.     

Equity markets sold off with the release of the July employment report, and the signal of a slowing economy. Then came Monday, with the Dow dropping more than 1,000 points. Markets were somewhat relieved and cut losses after the release of the ISM Services report, pointing to expansion in the service economy.   

More encouraging news came later in the week,  with the release of new claims for unemployment.  For the past several weeks, claims had been trending upward, an  indicator of a slower economy. Markets were surprised when claims came in below what was expected and surged as a result.   

The market turbulence last week was a combination of Fed inaction and market overreaction. With CPI less food, energy, and shelter rate running under 2%, a justification could have been made for the first cut in July. Market overreaction came in response to the national employment report on Friday, followed by Monday’s Yen carry trade-related sell-offs.  

The softening of payrolls brought a significant decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, a precursor to lower mortgage rates. 30-year mortgage rates have come down to 6.5%, and this will bring about a boost to the supply of homes, thus applying headwinds to shelter costs.  One reason for the current limited supply of homes has been the “lock-in” effect from homeowners with sub-4% mortgages. A reduction in rates will boost supply, as homeowners exercise options to either scale up or down in home ownership preferences.    

We are not ready to declare a recession just yet. While the labor market will continue to soften, this is also a matter of normalization of the macro-economy. Payroll changes averaged 251,000 a month in 2023, and that is still too high. Unemployment claims have risen from earlier levels but remain low compared to historical levels. Job openings have declined but still at levels that exceed the number of unemployed. Recession territory would need to see the opposite. Negative year-over-year changes in industrial production usually correspond to a recession, but for the last two months, the change in industrial production has turned positive, a reversal from the first quarter. The economy has not escaped a recession just yet. Keys to watch in the coming weeks will be the labor market and consumer spending. If both weaken considerably, recession calls will increase in intensity.  

Expansion on the Horizon: Jeffersonville Steel Processing Company Considers Growth at Ports of Indiana-Jeffersonville 

by with No Comment 1si News1si Press ReleaseEconomic Development

voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation looking to potentially expand Jeffersonville operations. 

Jeffersonville, IN. (Aug. 5, 2024) 

voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation (RFC) is considering a major expansion of their Jeffersonville operations. If Jeffersonville is chosen, the expansion would result in a new production line for frame rails for several major global customers, and would include over $77,900,000 in construction, equipment, and other related services. The expansion would include over 100 new jobs that will meet or exceed the Clark County average wage. 

voestalpine RFC, a supplier of roll formed metal, services several different industries, including aerospace, construction, material handling, off-highway, office furniture, solar, and transportation, is wholly owned by voestalpine AG, a globally leading steel and technology group operating in over 50 countries. 

Several locations are under consideration for the company’s expansion project. As part of its decision-making process, the company is requesting support from the City of Jeffersonville with a final location decision determined and communicated by voestalpine AG on August 19, 2024. Duke Energy has also offered additional incentives. 

“As we look to further develop new markets and grow our business to meet our customer’s needs, we want to thank the Indiana Economic Development Corporation, Duke Energy Indiana, Clark County, One Southern Indiana, Jeffersonville Redevelopment Commission, and the City of Jeffersonville for the support in evaluating where the next chapter of growth will reside for voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation. The cooperation with state and local leaders is a key consideration for us,” said CFO of voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation, Brad Lacy. “It is important to note that we still have a decision to make on an ideal location for our investment for all stakeholders including employees, customers and the communities in which we operate. We will finalize this decision the week of August 12 in partnership with our executive team and an official press release will follow the week of Monday, August 19 from voestalpine AG.” 

“We are thrilled voestalpine RFC continues to find success in Jeffersonville and are now under final consideration to significantly grow their operations at their Ports of Indiana-Jeffersonville location,” said Mayor Mike Moore. “This expansion is yet another reflection of the vibrant economic environment we have fostered over the years, now affording us this opportunity to bring over 100 new high-wage jobs to the community, all of which are above the Clark County average wage.” 

“Ports of Indiana is delighted voestalpine RFC is considering the Jeffersonville port for this critical expansion,” said Ports of Indiana Chief Executive Officer Jody Peacock. “This is a visionary company that provides specialized roll formed metal for key industries, including aerospace, construction, solar, and transportation. By locating next to its existing facility, it can further enhance its competitive advantage by leveraging the port’s multimodal connections, logistics services, foreign-trade zone and operational synergies within the port’s steel campus.” 

“Voestalpine has operated in this region for years, and when a customer of ours considers expanding here, it is a win for Hoosiers,” said Duke Energy Indiana President Stan Pinegar. “We are glad to work with them to help make this possible. This would bring both capital investment and jobs—both permanent and construction—to this community.” 

“We are delighted about the potential expansion of voestalpine RFC in Southern Indiana,” said CEO and President of One Southern Indiana, Lance Allison. “This move underscores the attractiveness of our business and economic development environment and the strong network we offer to companies looking to grow in the region.” 

About voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation 

voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation supplies custom roll formed metal components into several industries including Aerospace, Construction, Material Handling, Off-Highway, Office Furniture, Solar and Transportation. 

In 2000, Roll Forming Corporation was acquired by globally leading steel and technology group voestalpine AG joining the Metal Forming, Tubes and Sections division. In 2001, voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation became a corporate partner to the state of Indiana by adding a manufacturing facility in Jeffersonville, Indiana. 

Today, voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation has seven production facilities across three states with five facilities and headquarters located in Shelby County, Kentucky and one facility each in Pennsylvania and Indiana. 

About Ports of Indiana: Ports of Indiana is a statewide port authority operating three ports on the Ohio River and Lake Michigan. Established in 1961, Ports of Indiana is a self-funded enterprise dedicated to growing Indiana’s economy by developing and maintaining a world-class port system, and by serving as a statewide resource for maritime issues, international trade, and multimodal logistics. Web:  www.portsofindiana.com

About Duke Energy 

Duke Energy Indiana, a subsidiary of Duke Energy, provides about 6,300 megawatts of owned electric capacity to approximately 900,000 customers in a 23,000-square-mile service area, making it Indiana’s largest electric supplier. 

About One Southern Indiana 
One Southern Indiana (1si) was formed in July of 2006 as the economic development organization and chamber of commerce serving Clark and Floyd counties. 1si’s mission is to help businesses innovate and thrive in the Southern Indiana / Louisville metro area via the three pillars of Business Resources, Economic Development, and Advocacy. For more information on One Southern Indiana, visit www.1si.org.  


Contact: 
voestalpine AG  
mediarelations@voestalpine.com 

One Southern Indiana 
Brittany Schmidt, Manager of Programs, Events, and Groups 
BrittanyS@1si.org  
812-945-0266 

 

### 

Thank You for Renewing Your Membership | July 2024

by with No Comment 1si NewsThank Your for Renewing Your Membership

One Southern Indiana would like to thank the following members for renewing their membership during the month of July 2024.

Quarter Century Club (25 Years or More)Member Since
Retailers Supply  (aka Aramsco)1968
Bachman Auto Group1976
Clark County REMC1976
First Savings Bank1976
Geo. Pfau’s Sons Company, Inc.1976
Lee Building Products1976
paco manufacturing1976
Water Tower Square1977
Goodwill of Central & Southern Indiana, Inc.1982
The Marketing Company1985
Commercial Kentucky, Inc.1988
Southern Indiana Works1988
Custom Foods Catering1990
Hosparus Health of Southern Indiana1990
Kightlinger & Gray, LLP 1991
AssuredPartners – Jeffersonville1993
Monroe Shine & Co., Inc., CPA’s1994
Nimlok Kentucky1994
Taco Bell1994
  
Ten to 24 Years 
The Stemler Corporation2001
LMH Architecture2002
Radiology Associates, Inc.2002
Health Insurance by Design2003
Callistus Smith Agency, Inc.2004
Highlander Point Center2006
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis2007
Harrison County Convention & Visitors Bureau2007
Gilda’s Club Kentuckiana2008
Security Pros, LLC2009
Stoll Keenon Ogden PLLC2009
Timmel Associates, LLC2009
Jimmy John’s2011
Crown Staffing2012
Fox Insurance & Investments, LLC2012
Heritage Engineering, LLC2012
Jones, Nale & Mattingly PLC2012
Dr. Black’s Eye Associates2013
ProMedia Group, LLC2013
Stotts Orthodontics2013
Clark Dietz, Inc.2014
Culver’s of Jeffersonville2014
Estes Waste Solutions, LLC2014
HWC Engineering2014
Lochmueller Group, Inc.2014
  
Five to Nine Years 
Ronald McDonald House Charities of Kentuckiana2015
Shoe Sensation #9732015
Taylor Siefker Williams Design Group2015
Bubba’s 332016
Church, Langdon, Lopp, Banet Law2016
Cornell Harbison Excavating, Inc.2016
H & H Metal Products, Inc.2016
Habitat for Humanity Clark & Floyd Indiana2016
Infinite Solutions, LLC2016
J & C Technologies2016
Kaiser Home Support Services, Inc.2016
River Valley Resources2016
Louisville Water Co.2017
River Heritage Conservancy, Inc.2017
Volunteers of America Mid-States2017
Farmers Insurance2018
Hanover College2018
Hollenbach-Oakley2019
KCC Manufacturing2019
Spencer Machine & Tool Co., Inc.2019
The Mustard Seed, Thrift On Mission, Inc.2019
  
Two to Four Years 
Board and You Bistro2020
Benchmark Family Services2021
Clark/Floyd System of CARE & Prevent Child Abuse2021
Clearpath Specialty2021
Guerin Woods2021
Louisville Bats Baseball Club2021
Outward Bound Support Services, LLC2021
Centerstone2022
Kentuckiana Mortgage Group Inc.2022
  
One Year 
Christian Brothers Automotive2023
Clarksville Little Theatre2023
Dare to Care Food Bank2023
Mitch Craig Heating & Cooling2023
Phoenix Theatres Entertainment2023
Premier Homes of Southern Indiana, Inc.2023
Spectrum Reach2023
Statewide Mortgage2023
The Kleingers Group2023

Economic Update | Consumer Preferences of Services Over Goods

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development

submitted by
Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

The consumer is responsible for almost 70% of the U.S. economy and has been one of the biggest surprises of the post-pandemic economy. Last year, we wrote about the resilience of the consumer, in the face of high inflation, and most recently about a potential pullback of the consumer in 2024.     Any economic slowdown will either be led by the consumer or adversely impact the consumer.  The ideal slowdown for the Fed is one that does not derail the consumer altogether, or significantly trip up the labor market.  Accomplishing this would fit the soft-landing scenario. 

Last week, we learned that the economy accelerated in the second quarter, growing by 2.8% compared to 1.4% in the first quarter. The largest contribution to this acceleration in GDP was once again, the consumer. The consumer contributions of services spending to GDP growth exceeded goods by almost twice the level.  On the goods side, durable goods were the greatest contribution, primarily through auto sales.  On the services side, healthcare spending dominated and was the leading contributor to growth. 

While this news was encouraging, we also must remember that the GDP report is backward-looking. GDP does not reflect current economic conditions, or even the near term ahead.   It is a picture of the economy in the rear-view mirror. Even so, the report still came as another surprise, built on the resilience of the consumer. 

Our last consumer-related column did raise the possibility of an overall pullback of the consumer. Despite the positive GDP report, this is still in the cards.   Goods are cold, and some services remain hot. A slowing consumer will provide additional validation that a cut is now warranted.  Recent reports show that inflation continues to head in the direction that will support a cut in interest rates, now most likely in September.    

High interest rates have had a noticeable impact on durable goods, longer-lasting items that often require financing.  Take automobiles, for example.  Domestic auto unit sales last month were at 1.96 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate).   Just prior to the pandemic, domestic auto unit sales were running just over 3 million.    This pre-pandemic level of 3 million was also a bottom compared to ten years ago when domestic unit sales were close to 6 million.  During the Great Recession, when household finances were devastated from both a housing crash and elevated unemployment rates, domestic unit auto sales hit a bottom of 2.8 million. The current level of new auto sales is at a historic low, and lower than the depths of even the Great Recession. However, foot traffic data by Placer.ai show that visits to car dealerships are about flat compared to last year, but now moving above trend for this time of the year.  Incentives and lower rates may be having an impact and luring buyers back.  Auto sales should see some appreciation from here.

One durable good important to Indiana is the RV, with Indiana holding the place as the largest RV  manufacturing state.  RV purchases are also sensitive to interest rates, and we can see the impact of higher rates on RV shipments coming out of RV manufacturers. During June, RV shipments hit 25,000, and this was up slightly from 2023.    Back in June 2021, RV shipments were double, hitting levels of 50,000 in a month.   Employers rushed to hire more people to keep up with demand. Since then, Indiana’s employment in transportation equipment manufacturing, which includes RV manufacturing, is down by about 10,000. A review of foot traffic of random RV retail establishments across Indiana shows a noticeable decline in customer visits, declining by an average of 19%  from a year ago.  

Retail sales for furniture, furnishings, household equipment, electronics, and appliances are down since the beginning of 2023, and down about 10% compared to the surge of 2021. Government stimulus and mortgage rates below 3% drove significant demand, but higher interest rates have softened sales since. Foot traffic for furniture and home furnishings is down about 10% across Indiana compared to the prior year. Electronic store visits are only down 5%, but this is 25% below the baseline trend.

While interest-sensitive industries have experienced challenges, others, specifically food and drinking establishments, are at an all-time high. Retail sales are expressed in nominal terms, which means that some revenue gains will be due to inflation. Since the start of 2022, food and drinking establishments sales are up about 30%, while overall price levels by 10%. While there is variability within the industry, some of these gains in food and drinking establishments are real increases when compared to early 2022.  Sales are also up by about 4.5% since last year,  higher than the current inflation rate.   As a comparison, food and drinking establishment sales were flat during the Great Recession and it took 7 years to realize the same percentage change in industry sales since 2020.   Challenges do remain, such as labor and food costs, but having enough customers is not the primary concern. Following the pandemic, consumers have gravitated toward valuing experiences over goods, and food and drinking sales are reflective of this.

With inflation now heading in the right direction, the other piece to the soft landing lies in the labor market.   Payroll growth remains strong, but signs continue to emerge of a softening labor market.  Unemployment claims have been edging upward, and continuing claims are the highest since late 2021.   The unemployment rate has been inching upward, exceeding an increase of ½% in some locales. Average hourly wage growth is now under 4%, compared to 5% last year, and almost 7% two years ago.  The July employment report is expected to show additional cooling, and that should be the final validation for a September rate cut, along with increasing headwinds for consumers.  

Minority Business Spotlight | A & B Logistics

by with No Comment 1si NewsMinority Business Spotlight

This month’s Minority Business Spotlight is on A & B Logistics.  They are the brokerage company at Mister “P” Express, which is officially certified as Women-Owned through the Women’s Business Enterprise National Council!

A & B Logistics is owned solely by Cynthia Parnell Collier and has been in business since 1994. The company handles brokerage freight, surplus freight, seasonal fluctuations, capacity surges, challenging lanes, and other unexpected needs. Simply put, it’s the women-owned brokerage division located at Mister “P” Express. Customers will still receive the same #1 customer service they’re used to, now with the added benefit of doing business with a woman-owned company! Contact A&B Logistics today: Contact@ablogistics.org or 812-256-2555.

 

Cynthia Parnell Collier

 

A & B Logistics

 

Mister “P” Express, Inc.

1si President & CEO Named One of Indiana Business Journal’s Indiana 250

by with No Comment 1si News1si Press Release

Congratulations to President & CEO Lance Allison who has been named one of Indiana Business Journal’s Indiana 250.  Please read their official press release below for more information about the Indiana 250.

IBJ MEDIA RELEASES THIRD ANNUAL INDIANA 250 LIST OF INFLUENTIAL HOOSIERS

INDIANAPOLIS, IN (July 17, 2024) — IBJ Media on Wednesday released its third annual Indiana 250, a list of the state’s most influential and impactful business and community leaders, representing public and private companies, law firms, universities, not-for-profits, government and community organizations.

The list, available at Indiana250.com, includes nearly 70 names that are new from last year. IBJ Media CEO Nate Feltman said that’s evidence that the people making an impact in Indiana are always growing and changing.

“It’s hard to choose just 250 people from among the thousands who work every day to make Indiana a better place to live and to work,” Feltman said. “But we believe the people on the Indiana 250 list are especially worthy of distinction. They are thinking big and driving change.”

The list was compiled by the executives, editors and newsroom staffs at IBJ Media’s three news brands

— Indianapolis Business Journal, Inside INdiana Business and Indiana Lawyer — after a monthslong process that included reviewing nominations, researching Indiana organizations and talking with community leaders across the state.

The Indiana 250 will be celebrated at an exclusive reception featuring remarks by Vice President Mike Pence on July 17. Title sponsors of the event are CareSource, Ice Miller and Pacers Sports & Entertainment. Premier sponsors of the event are Aaron Wealth Advisors, Bank of America and Northwest Bank. The host sponsor is Salesforce.

IBJ Media launched the Indiana 250 program in 2022 and plans to continue updating the list annually.

“Creating this list is always inspiring because the people on it have so much passion for our communities and our state,” Feltman said. “One of our goals with the list is to make sure that we recognize people from across Indiana and from diverse industries and then make connections among them for the betterment of all Hoosiers.”

Among those returning to the list are CEOs of some of the state’s largest public and private companies, including David Ricks of Eli Lilly and Co., Gail Boudreaux of Elevance Health, Jennifer Rumsey of Cummins Inc., Dan Starr of Do it Best Corp., Kimberly Ryan of Hillenbrand, Chuck Magro of Corteva, Scott Davison of OneAmerica, Mark Millett of Steel Dynamics and Brent Yeagy of Wabash.

IBJ Media added a number of additional executives this year, including Curt Begle of Berry Global, Ellen Crabb of United Animal Health, Brad Moore of Roche Diagnostics Corp., R. Scott Brand of Subaru of Indiana Automotive, Brandi Davis-Handy of AES Indiana and Dave Bailey of OrthoPediatrics.

Indiana 250 Editor Lesley Weidenbener, who is also editor and assistant publisher of IBJ, said the list also recognizes leaders at not-for-profit organizations, industry groups, government agencies and smaller companies that have an outsized influence in Indiana. The list includes Hoosiers who are making an impact through health care, law, philanthropy, not-for-profit leadership and the arts.

Indiana Fever sensation Caitlin Clark—who is drawing tens of thousands more fans to the WNBA—made the 2024 list, for example, even though she’s been in Indiana only a few months. So did Dennis Bland, president of the Center for Leadership Development which helps prepare Black youth for careers and college. And the Indiana 250 includes Kalen Jackson, a vice chair and co-owner of the Indianapolis Colts who is spearheading the team’s efforts to remove the stigma associated with mental health problems.

“We love welcoming people to the Indiana 250 who are impacting the state in non-corporate ways,” Weidenbener said. “We are a media company focused on business, and so of course our list is heavy on corporate executives. But the arts, philanthropy and charitable work are key parts of our larger community.”

Elected officials are not eligible for the list.

IBJ Media published profiles of the honorees in a magazine that will be distributed with the July 19 issue of the IBJ. The magazine is available for purchase for $50 at Indiana250.com. Indiana Lawyer subscribers will receive a discount on the book. All subscribers of IBJ, Inside INdiana Business and Indiana Lawyer can access the profiles and additional information online at Indiana250.com.

The Indiana 250 reception is invitation-only and closed to the media. Limited media access will be available from 5-6 PM in the Salesforce Tower lobby.

-#Indiana250-

About IBJ Media

IBJ Media is the parent company of three news brands: Indianapolis Business Journal, Inside INdiana Business and Indiana Lawyer. Learn more at IBJMedia.com.

Indianapolis Business Journal: Since 1980, the Indianapolis Business Journal has been known for its in- depth and thoughtful coverage of central Indiana’s business community. IBJ produces its weekly award- winning newspaper, daily news updates, thought-leading podcasts and 20-plus events and award programs. Learn more at IBJ.com.

Inside INdiana Business: As a winner of five Emmys for best interview or discussion program, Inside INdiana Business with Gerry Dick delivers compelling business and community news from across the state of Indiana. With a portfolio of television, radio, digital and on-demand business news products, Inside INdiana Business is the leading source for Indiana business news. Learn more at InsideINdianaBusiness.com.

Economic Update | National Manufacturing Impact on Regional Payrolls – And Rate Cuts are on the Horizon

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development

submitted by
Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

Coming out of the pandemic, the Indiana and Kentucky economies fared quite well. Kentucky was one of the leading states with respect to job creation, and Indiana consistently saw unemployment rates that were under the national average. As the national economy continues to move toward a softening, along with the ongoing manufacturing slump, we examine the impact of manufacturing job growth across Indiana and Kentucky.   

First, both states have a heavy concentration of manufacturing jobs, and any changes in the macroeconomy will be felt locally. Nationally, manufacturing has been experiencing slower growth, and some have even described it as a manufacturing recession. The ISM Index, a measure used to show growth or contraction in manufacturing, has been under 50 since November 2022, except for one month, March 2024.  A reading under 50 signifies contraction and over 50 expansions. With a slower manufacturing environment, orders are being fulfilled, unlike the supply chain-challenged days of the pandemic. The ISM backlog orders index, for example, has been trending down for all of 2024, signaling that manufacturers are having less difficulty fulfilling orders. Industrial production, a measure of the nation’s manufacturing activity, moved into negative territory last June and has hovered around negative to slightly positive since. Durable goods orders, a leading indicator of future economic activity, have been trending downward for all of 2024. Orders plummeted last month and are now at negative year-over-year changes. The sluggishness in orders does not portend vigorous manufacturing activity ahead.  A declining interest rate environment will work to reverse this trend, but the impact will not be immediate.   

We can see the impact of the national manufacturing slowdown on payrolls across Indiana and Kentucky, as well as the region. The manufacturing employment concentration in Indiana is greater than two, which implies that the proportion of workers employed in manufacturing is twice the national average. In Kentucky, while higher than the national average, the employment concentration in Kentucky manufacturing is 1.5, which implies that the proportion of workers employed in manufacturing is 150% higher than the national average.   Thus, we expect any national slowing in manufacturing will have a greater impact on Indiana versus Kentucky. 

Indiana manufacturing jobs peaked in August 2022, at 544,000.  Since then, manufacturing payrolls have been on a steady decline, with the latest count at 531,000. This puts manufacturing employment down almost 15,000 jobs over the past 18 months, while overall job growth is up 71,000 over that same period. The metro areas of Elkhart-Goshen, Columbus, and Muncie are experiencing a negative change in payroll growth, with Bloomington and Terre Haute hovering just above 0, basically flat. The decline is not as significant in Kentucky, but the state has less than ½ of the manufacturing jobs of Indiana. Since August 2022, Kentucky has been seeing a small gain in manufacturing, compared to the loss of 15,000 in Indiana.  However, since peaking in October 2023, manufacturing payrolls are now down almost 3,000 in Kentucky. All metro areas in Kentucky are seeing positive job growth, with Owensboro and Louisville Metro seeing growth of less than 1%.     

To be sure, job growth across both states continues to expand, but at slower rates.  Indiana payroll growth has slowed to 1.4%, year-over-year, compared to 2% in early 2023. Kentucky growth has slowed to 1.3% year over year, compared to more than 3% in early 2023.  While manufacturing does not employ the numbers from twenty years ago, both states continue to employ a greater percentage of workers compared to nationally.  Consequently, the national manufacturing slowdown will also have an impact on regional payroll growth. Louisville area manufacturing is down close to 2,000 payrolls over the year, and Southern Indiana saw negative manufacturing job growth for the final three quarters in 2023.  We can also see the overall softening with higher unemployment rates in both states:   4.6% (compared to 4.1% last year) in Kentucky and 3.7% (compared to 3.3% last year) in Indiana. 

The leading contributor to job growth for both Indiana and Kentucky has been healthcare. Over the year, Indiana and Kentucky gained 15,000 and 14,000 healthcare jobs respectively.  In the past two years, these amounts have doubled. Over the past year, health care is responsible for ½ of the job growth in Kentucky and around a third in Indiana. 

In our last column, we suggested that the Fed would likely cut interest rates in September, with an outside chance of one happening in July.   The CPI report was released last week, and it showed inflation came in weaker than expected, declining by .10% over the month. The super core CPI, which strips away food, energy, and shelter, was under 2%.    So, the Fed did receive the CPI print to justify a September cut.  The missing piece for a July cut was on the labor side. The last employment report did show some labor market softening, with another uptick in the unemployment rate. Overall payroll growth was still strong, however, rising by another 206,000. Probabilities are now showing the first cut for September. As the labor market continues to soften, and assuming the disinflation trend, we should see three rate reductions for the rest of the year.   

Nonprofit Spotlight | Community Action of Southern Indiana

by with No Comment 1si NewsNonprofit Spotlight

Community Action of Southern Indiana
201 East 15th Street
Jeffersonville, IN 47130
Business Phone: 812.288.6451
casi1.org

Contact Person: Adrian Jamieson, Executive Director
Contact Email: ajamieson@casi1.org

Please use 300 words or less to describe your agency and your impact in the community.

In order to reduce poverty and improve well-being in our community, Community Action of Southern Indiana works to focus available local, state, federal, and private resources to help low-income individuals and families acquire useful skills and knowledge, to gain access to needed services, to discover new opportunities, and to achieve economic self-sufficiency.

Community Action of Southern Indiana’s broad base of services makes a difference every day for individuals and families.

Community Action of Southern Indiana carries out its mission through the provision of a broad range of direct services and through partnerships with other community-based organizations

CASI’s Head Start and Early Head Start programs serve over 300 children, ages birth to 5.

CASI’s Weatherization Assistance Program permanently lowers utility bills by providing energy saving home improvements.

Community Action of Southern Indiana’s Housing Choice Voucher Program is committed to the idea that every family has the right to safe, decent, and affordable housing.

The Minority Health Initiative works to eliminate health disparities through research, training, education, advocacy, and by improving access to health care services for at-risk populations.

The Southern Indiana Tobacco Prevention and Cessation Coalition brings community partners together to reduce tobacco use within at-risk communities in Clark County.

VOICE Action Speaks engages youth leaders and advocates in the movement against teen tobacco use.

The Expungement Program, in partnership with the Gilt Edge Community Development Corporation, gives individuals convicted of certain crimes a fresh start through the expungement of their Indiana convictions.

The Life Literacy Academy mentors a select group of students from 8th grade through 12th grade.

Empower Southern Indiana helps to provide financial empowerment to low-income individuals.

Community Gardens provides healthy food through sustainable gardening.

The Teen Boutique program allows low-income students to purchase $100 of new clothes for school.

Agency Mission Statement or Description: To support and empower families and communities striving to reach self-sufficiency

Year established: 1964

Counties/regions serviced: Clark, Floyd, and Harrison

Focus areas: Impactful services to low-income individuals and families

Impact in community: Community Action of Southern Indiana reaches children and families in Clark, Floyd, and Harrison counties with life-changing services, from early childhood education, to financial literacy classes, to help with rising rent, to savings on energy bills, to narrowing health disparities, and more. Established in 1964, Community Action of Southern Indiana connects individuals and families to services that help them succeed

Volunteer Opportunities: Tax Assistance, Computer Skills Training, Financial Literacy Training, Mentoring, Tabling, Interacting with Young Children

How 1si members can help your organization: Creating Awareness, Forging Partnerships

Empowering Southern Indiana: Caesars Foundation of Floyd County Supports Four Businesses with Loans

by with No Comment 1si News1si Press Release

The loan recipients are all local to Southern Indiana and range from transportation to business expansion.  

[NEW ALBANY, IN.] July 8, 2024 – One Southern Indiana (1si) and Caesars Foundation of Floyd County are thrilled to announce four new Caesars Foundation of Floyd County Small Business Revolving Loan Fund recipients. The loan assists private businesses in expanding operations and increasing or retaining employees. Businesses must be located or planned in Floyd County and have been established for at least two years. The recipients include Floyd Farm and Feed, Platform Dining & Lounge, LLC., P.U.S.H. Transportation, LLC, and CXE Insurance.   

Floyd Farm and Feed is a local animal feed and groomer in Georgetown, IN. The store features various farming materials, such as equine, flock, goat/sheep, and pet feed, supplies, and seeds. Floyd Farm and Feed will expand their operations to include a new building, which will prove much needed space for more inventory to assist customers.  

Platform Dining & Lounge, LLC is a diversified venue with casual dining, lounge, and spirits. Located right off Main St., in New Albany, IN., the family-friendly establishment will provide an elevated experience when it comes to dining and entertainment.  

P.U.S.H. Transportation, LLC is a family-owned transportation company in New Albany, IN., run by Lavonia Cochran, a seasoned commercial driver. P.U.S.H. Transportation offers a flexible and affordable solution for those who need scheduled, on-demand, and non-emergency medical transportation with a 15-passenger van.  

CXE Insurance is an insurance agency that is locally owned and operated by Geoff Donaldson in New Albany, IN. They service Indiana for all insurance needs, as well as Kentucky for commercial, life and health insurance. 

Loan amounts range from $5,000 to $50,000 with a maximum interest rate less than the prime rate of interest. Maximum terms of loans are 10 years for land and building loans, five years for equipment loans, and two years for working capital loans. For more information, contact Rachael Armstrong at One Southern Indiana at (812) 206-9021 or RachaelA@1si.org.

“The Caesars Foundation is thrilled to offer loans from the Small Business Revolving Loan Fund to four local businesses,” said Executive Director, Dr. Josh Kornberg. “The Caesars Foundation encourages economic development in Floyd County, and small businesses are the heart of our community. We look forward to watching these businesses grow.” 

“One Southern Indiana is excited to see additional growth in the community,” said President and CEO, Lance Allison. “Rachael, our Small Business Navigator, is an excellent resource for small businesses looking to grow and succeed in Floyd County. We thank the Caesar’s Foundation for their continued support of entrepreneurial endeavors in our region.” 

About the Caesars Foundation of Floyd County 

The Caesars Foundation of Floyd County is a private foundation created to benefit the Floyd County community. The Foundation’s philanthropic focus traditionally falls into the categories of grant-making to charitable non-profit organizations, educational scholarships, and program-related investments that encourage economic development. For more, visit www.caesarsfoundationfc.org.  

About One Southern Indiana

One Southern Indiana was formed in July of 2006 as the economic development organization and chamber of commerce serving Clark and Floyd counties. 1si’s mission is to provide the connections, resources, and services that help businesses innovate and thrive in the Southern Indiana / Louisville metro area. For more, visit 1si.org.

For Additional Information:

Dr. Josh Kornberg, EdD, CFRE 
Executive Director 
Phone: 812-945-4332 
Email: Josh@caesarsfoundationfc.org  

Rachael Armstrong 
Small Business Navigator 
Phone: (812) 206-9021 
Email: RachaelA@1si.org  

Brittany Schmidt
Manager of Programs, Events, and Groups
Phone: (812) 945-0266
Email: BrittanyS@1si.org