What Will it Take to Bring Mortgage Rates Down?

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development

Submitted by Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

There was a big move in the bond markets last week, with Treasury bonds rallying for their largest gain in almost four years. The result was a big drop in the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, falling below 5% for the first time since the last week of September. The big move was short-lived, however, with yields moving back up to almost 5% the next day.

So much can change in one month. As recently as early September, the 10-year yield was under 5%, and mortgage rates were well under 7%. Prior to the Iran War, 10-year yields were under 4%, and mortgage rates were trending downward toward 6%. For mortgage rates to decline again, the 10-year yield must decline. That’s one of the purported reasons the Treasury Secretary pursued a bond-buying scheme back in September, to boost prices and reduce yields. That effect ultimately proved to be minimal, though.

The drop in 10-year yields was driven in part by fears surrounding the whole AI buildout, and whether revenues generated from AI will be sufficient to justify the massive amounts of debt being incurred to finance AI infrastructure. This contributed to a rotation from technology stocks to more traditional blue-chip stocks, some of which comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While the NASDAQ cratered on Thursday, stocks like Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, and Coca-Cola all finished higher. After investors rotated out of technology, the NASDAQ dropped 2.6%, but the Dow edged up 0.03%. For the week, the NASDAQ was down 0.7%, while the Dow was up 0.4%.

A declining 10-year yield would push mortgage rates down from the recent high of 7.5%. This would come as welcome news for the ailing housing sector. Recent reports show a big drop in pending home sales, putting the index at the lowest level since 2001, the start of the series. That means signed contracts for existing home sales were weaker than in any month in the past 25 years. Housing starts also declined in September, down 5.2%. All this is not making homebuilders more optimistic either, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Index at its lowest level since 2012. In this same report, it was indicated that 43% of builders are cutting prices. No wonder builder optimism is down.

Mortgage rates above 7% are having somewhat of a chilling effect on the residential real estate market across Indiana and Southern Indiana. Across Indiana, pending home sales are already down 10% from last year. For Southern Indiana, pending home sales are down 15% in September, and closings have also declined from last year.

Higher mortgage rates will also intensify the “lock-in” effect that originated with the ultra-low mortgage rates of 2021. Homeowners who secured a mortgage under 3% have little interest in selling, either downsize or upsize. The lock-in effect, which had eased somewhat, limits the supply of homes on the market, putting upward pressure on home prices.

So, while listings are up from the low point of 2021, statewide listings are only about 65% of the level from 10 years ago. While mortgage rates are higher, we have not seen any significant erosion in home prices due to the limited supply of housing. The median home price for Indiana is now up to $275,000, an increase of 31% from five years ago and 4% from last year. Southern Indiana’s median home price is slightly lower at $272,500, but also up 4% from last year.

Back in February of this year, the 30-year mortgage rate approached 6%. The 10-year yield had fallen below 4%, and this was about to push mortgage rates under the psychological 6% threshold. Since then, inflation has reemerged, pushing yields above 5%, and mortgage rates are now closer to 7.5%.

A growth scare, like the one that occurred with the AI buildout, would drive yields lower, and along with them, mortgage rates. This, however, is doubtful. While there are potential dark clouds on the horizon, the economy continues to run strong, as evidenced by above-trend GDP growth.

Another route to lower mortgage rates is tied to inflation. Lower inflation would put downward pressure on 10-year yields, and mortgage rates would likely follow. While headline inflation remains elevated at 3.7%, this is due primarily to the Iran War and its impact on oil prices. Implied inflation rates five years out are also just above 2%, suggesting that inflation will be contained.

If the war comes to an end soon, and the price of oil declines with it, both headline and core inflation could trend downward. The ultimate effect would be lower mortgage rates, but several months out.

Nonprofit Spotlight: Down Syndrome of Louisville

by with No Comment 1si NewsNonprofit Spotlight

Founded in 1977, Down Syndrome of Louisville (DSL) has been a trusted resource for individuals with Down syndrome and their families for nearly five decades. In 2011, DSL merged with Down Syndrome Support Association of Southern Indiana, expanding its reach across Kentucky and Southern Indiana. Today, the organization serves approximately 300 individuals annually.

As the only Gold Accredited Down Syndrome Association in the country, DSL provides specialized development and educational services through every stage of life, from prenatal diagnosis through adulthood. Through education, advocacy, and support, DSL empowers individuals with Down syndrome to reach their full potential while advocating for their rights and inclusion in education and everyday life.


To learn more about Down Syndrome of Louisville or find ways to get involved, visit dsoflou.org.

A Weak Start to 2026, but Signs of Improvement Ahead

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development
Submitted by Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast
 

As we enter the fourth quarter of 2026, the year is shaping up to be one of the weakest for payroll growth, nationally, in the past 20 years, not counting recessionary-related years. However, the first quarter of this year looks like it may have been a trough in this rough patch. Since then, year-over-year changes in quarterly averages have been on a slightly upward trajectory, but still under growth from prior years.

There are several factors that might explain the weaker job growth, but one could be the degree of uncertainty in the economy. One measure of uncertainty, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, spiked in early 2025 and has remained elevated since. Uncertainty introduces risk into the investment equation, potentially curbing the business appetite for more investment. At least for investment in structures, much of the growth has been driven by data centers. According to data from BofA Global Research, if you remove the impact of data centers, investment in structures would be just about flat, at least from 2020 through 2025.

The national slowdown in payroll growth also showed up in Southern Indiana, where the latest employment numbers pointed to similar weakness. First-quarter data for Southern Indiana (Clark, Floyd, Harrison, Scott and Washington) are now available, and we can also take a longer view at first-quarter performance over the past 20 years. It turns out that the first quarter for Southern Indiana was also among the weakest first quarters in the past 20 years, outside recessionary-related years.

For the first quarter of 2026, Southern Indiana gained 700 jobs, representing a 0.65% change from the prior year. In the first quarter of 2025, the region added more than 900 jobs, or a 0.88% change. There were two other first quarters when job growth was weaker than in the first quarter of 2026, and those were 2017 and 2018.

The region had four consecutive first quarters of negative growth from 2009 to 2012. This was during the Great Recession, which ended in 2009, and the fallout after the recession, as the economy took several years to regain payrolls lost in the greatest contraction of the economy since the Great Depression.

The strongest first quarters came in 2015 and 2016, with growth exceeding 3%. On an absolute basis, the region gained almost 4,000 jobs over the year during the first quarter of 2016, the highest in the 20-year period. The second leading first quarter was in 2022, adding more than 3,000 jobs. We were still seeing recovery from Covid, and this level was partially influenced by a lower base in 2021.

Dragging down the first-quarter numbers for this year was manufacturing, losing 594 jobs from the previous year. For five of the past seven quarters, manufacturers have shed jobs, down about 3,000 since 2020. Healthcare continued adding jobs, gaining more than 600, almost equaling the total added for the entire region. Since 2020, health care has added almost 4,000 jobs.

The second largest increase was in professional, scientific, and technical services, adding almost 400 knowledge-based jobs, a positive sign for the overall region.

Since the first quarter, national payrolls have picked up, although still quite volatile from month to month. It is likely that the 700 jobs gained during the first quarter represent the near-term trough for Southern Indiana, and we’ll see stronger growth for the rest of the year once the data are released.

Technical Resource Council Spotlight: Anthony Nicks

by with No Comment 1si NewsMetro Manufacturing Alliance

What does your work inside a company look like?

I lead weekly sales meetings, set priorities, establish performance expectations, and follow up on commitments. I work directly with the owner, leadership team, and salespeople. My role isn’t simply to recommend what should happen; it’s to take responsibility for the sales-management work and help the team execute.

 

Can you share an example of a measurable result?

In one client engagement, I helped put a pipeline strategy and qualification framework in place. Within approximately 90 days, the client’s sales close rate increased by 18% over its previous rate. The work centered on improving how the team qualified opportunities and managed its pipeline.

 

How do you coach individual salespeople?

I conduct one-to-one coaching around actual opportunities and selling behaviors. We prepare for customer conversations, review what happened afterward, practice better questions, and work through stalled deals. We agree on specific actions and review follow-through at the next meeting.

 

What do you do with the sales process and CRM?

I work with the team to document the sales process, define qualification standards, and establish what must happen before an opportunity advances. In pipeline reviews, I challenge unsupported close dates, identify aging quotes, and have salespeople update records and establish clear next steps with customers.

 

How do you help with hiring and development?

I help define sales roles, evaluate candidates using sales and behavioral assessments, conduct interviews, and develop onboarding plans. For existing salespeople, I use assessments and coaching observations to identify development needs and build individual improvement plans.

 

How do you connect sales activity to company goals?

I help leadership translate growth goals into sales priorities and measurable expectations. I build scorecards, review new opportunities, proposals, and wins, and report where business is moving or stalling. I also work through sales-to-operations handoff issues, so responsibilities and customer requirements are clear. When commitments slip, we address the cause and agree on corrective action.

Welcome New Members | September 2026

by with No Comment 1si NewsWelcome New Members

One Southern Indiana welcomes the following members that joined or rejoined during the month of September 2026.

Thank You for Renewing Your Membership | September 2026

by with No Comment 1si NewsThank Your for Renewing Your Membership

One Southern Indiana would like to thank the following members for renewing their membership during the month of September 2026.

Quarter Century Club (25 years or more)Member Since
Ivy Tech Community College1970
TowerPinkster1988
River Hills Econ. Dev. Dist. & Regional Planning Commission1989
Jesse Ballew Enterprises1990
Fifth Third Bank2000
  
10-24 Years 
Kentucky Truck Sales2002
Cimtech, Inc.2007
Talis Group, Inc.2007
Patriot Engineering and Environmental2008
Prosser Career Education Center2009
Security Pros, LLC2009
Lindsey Wilson University2010
Edward Jones – Kevin Boehnlein2010
Unified Technologies2010
Kentuckiana Wood Products, Inc.2011
The Center for Women & Families2011
Crown Staffing2012
ERL, Inc.2014
Angel Hands Therapeutic Massage, Inc.2014
HWC Engineering2014
Chester Pool Systems, Inc.2014
The Spaghetti Junction2014
Pegasus Industries and Packaging2014
Fund for the Arts2014
Ronald McDonald House Louisville2015
Trinity Dynamics, Inc.2016
  
5-9 Years 
Visiting Angels of New Albany2018
The Mustard Seed, Thrift On Mission, Inc.2019
Progressive Material s2019
Our Place Drug & Alcohol Education Services, Inc.2019
Hilton Garden Inn Jeffersonville Louisville North2020
VACA, Inc.2020
Cluckers2020
Avant-Garde Turnstiles2021
Louisville Bats Baseball Club2021
Zoeller Pump Company2021
Family Scholar House, Inc.2021
Norse Tactical LLC2021
  
2-4 Years 
Kentucky Science Center2022
Dare to Care Food Bank2023
Statewide Mortgage2023
ATTC Manufacturing, Inc.2023
Merrick Printing Co., Inc.2023
Traditions at Bridgepointe Gardens2023
BIG Solutions Insurance2023
E-Z Construction2023
TownePlace Suites-Louisville North2023
ennu2024
Rotary Club of New Albany2024
Unrivaled Solutions2024
Sam’s Food & Spirits2024
University of Louisville Athletic Department 2024
North Harrison Community Schools2024
Marco Company2024
Porta Kleen2024
  
One Year 
Marcus Paint Company2025
Bricker Graydon Wyatt2025
Morgan Foods, Inc. 2025
Bristol Hospice New Albany2025
Southern Indiana Health Foundation2025
The Park Place Lodge2025
Capital Access Corporation-KY2025
Omnibuild2025
Shield Edge Technologies2025

Investment, Productivity, and the Changing Jobs Picture

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development
Submitted by Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast
 

The Federal Reserve increased the Fed Funds rate by a quarter point last week. Markets had fully anticipated the increase, and the Fed delivered. Markets surged a day after the increase, showing approval of the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation.

Eye on the Economy surely thought the Fed would hold in September, for several reasons. The core rate of inflation is not out of control, with a gradual downward trend. The labor market had a good report last month, but prior to that, payroll growth had been soft. And despite above target headline inflation, long run inflation expectations are largely anchored. Implied inflation five years out is just above 2%. We also expected a resolution to the Iran War by this time, with oil declining along with it. We were certainly not anticipating diesel at $6.50 a gallon, the price last week.

The increase in the Fed Funds rate is secondary to what is happening with longer rates. The 10-year Treasury yield surpassed the 5% threshold and now may remain around or above 5% until we see further progress on energy prices and inflation. The last time the 10-year yield was this high was 2007, just before the start of the Great Recession. A 5% Treasury yield is certainly not what the Treasury Secretary had in mind, promising stronger growth, but a federal deficit moving toward 3% of GDP. Growth in the supply side of the economy was going to reduce inflation, therefore putting downward pressure on the 10-year yield, while stronger GDP growth would help bring the deficit down as a percent of GDP. Tariffs, the Iran War and deficits and debt have interfered with those projections.

The implications of a 5% Treasury yield are far reaching, but perhaps the biggest is the impact on interest rates for consumers and businesses. Mortgage rates have gone up and are now over 7%. This will not bring any help to the ailing housing sector. Higher mortgage rates will impact the supply of new homes, putting further pressure on home prices, but also curtail demand for home sales. Significant price erosions are not likely. And higher rates will also impact mortgage payments, adding to the affordability problem. A 5% return might also be tempting to investors, adding volatility to the stock market, as investors move from stocks to bonds.

The 5% yield is not just an inflation and oil price story. Growth is also contributing to higher rates. The 10-year rate surged last week as economic indicators pointed to strong growth in both the services and manufacturing sides of the economy. The GDPNow tracker of the Atlanta Fed has GDP growing at 5%. And last week, retail sales came in much more strongly than expected.

Across Louisville Metro, similar to the U.S. picture, there is a disconnect between growth in the economy and payrolls. To be sure, Eye on the Economy was expecting faster growth in payrolls by this time of the year, but so far, it has been largely muted. Growth in manufacturing, which is happening, was expected to boost regional payrolls. However, that has yet to occur. Louisville payrolls peaked in mid-2024 at approximately 719,000 but have been moving sideways since. Most recent data have Louisville area jobs at about 710,000. These estimates are subject to measurement errors too.

But “help” was on the way for manufacturing by way of tariffs. Louisville area manufacturing payrolls peaked back in late 2022. Tariffs were supposed to resurrect manufacturing, and more importantly, add “lots of jobs”. While there is now growth in manufacturing nationally, jobs are not necessarily following. Since Liberation Day in early 2025, regional manufacturing payrolls have been largely negative, with the region losing manufacturing jobs since. One of the reasons is the uncertainty around tariffs, and spats with our neighbor to the North do not help.

But another reason is the separation of manufacturing jobs and investment in capital goods. Normally, when manufacturers invest in capital goods, like big equipment used for production, employment follows. This makes sense. As manufacturers buy more equipment for expansion, they need more workers to operate the equipment.

Since the latter part of 2023, this relationship has been moving in separate directions. Manufacturers are investing in capital goods, but the jobs are not following. In fact, the jobs are moving in the opposite direction. One conclusion is that businesses are investing in equipment to increase productivity, but don’t need the people due to advances in technology and automation. That is, we can produce more, but with fewer people.

Productivity is positive for the economy and the companies achieving those productivity gains, and this is where education and skills become increasingly important. Quite simply, as companies strive for productivity gains, employees need the skills and knowledge to compete in a more automated and fast-arriving artificial intelligence environment.

Nonprofit Spotlight: Tony Bennett Memorial Foundation

by with No Comment 1si NewsNonprofit Spotlight

The Tony Bennett Memorial Foundation was established to honor the life of Tony Rossi Bennett, who lost his life to suicide in the fall of 2016. The foundation is dedicated to supporting individuals and families affected by the loss of a loved one to suicide by providing resources, guidance, and assistance.

The foundation offers financial assistance to surviving family members following the loss of a loved one to suicide. In partnership with other organizations, it also promotes suicide prevention and awareness initiatives throughout the community. Additionally, the foundation provides scholarships to graduating seniors at local high schools, helping to invest in the future of young people in the region.

To learn more about what they do by watching the video below.

The Fed Gets a One-Two Punch from Jobs and Inflation

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development
Submitted by Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

 

There was a big surprise in the national jobs picture last week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the monthly Super Bowl of economic indicators, the monthly jobs report, and the economy added 162,000 jobs in August. This was significantly higher than expectations and a definite improvement from the prior month’s 21,000. Manufacturing payrolls showed continued acceleration, adding 16,000 jobs. Construction added another 22,000 jobs, likely helped by the expansion of construction associated with data centers. The largest increase came in food services and drinking places, reversing the negative change of the previous month. Health care and social assistance continued to add jobs. Revisions also showed that June and July payrolls were 55,000 higher.

While the establishment survey component of the report was quite favorable, the household side was even more so. Reversing prior months’ declines, the labor force expanded by 683,000. And many of those entrants to the labor market found jobs, with employment increasing by 569,000. Over the year, both the labor force and employment had been showing weakness. So, the big increase in both was welcome news. More impressive, the labor force participation rate increased by 2/10ths of a point, moving upward from 61.4% to 61.6%.

While the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.1%, there were some noticeable changes in the breakdown by educational attainment. The largest increase was in the high school graduate category, with the unemployment rate increasing from 4% to 4.7%, above the national average of 4.1%. Unemployment among bachelor’s degree holders remained flat at 2.7%. This is not a new development. The unemployment rate for bachelor’s degree holders is consistently about two percentage points lower than for high school graduates, despite all the hoopla about the relevance of a college degree today.

The strong payrolls report became a factor in the upcoming Fed decision. While it was not the ultimate tipping point for a Fed increase, the CPI report released last Friday may have been. Inflation came in hot, with the headline CPI increasing by 4/10ths of a percent in one month. Energy prices, linked to the ongoing Iran War, were a major contributor to the increase. This kept the annual rate of inflation at 3.4%. There was a sliver of good news, and that was with the core rate, which is CPI minus the cost of food and energy. The core continued to decline on a year-over-year basis, moving to 2.4%, closer to the preferred rate of 2%.

The end result is that the Fed will now more than likely increase rates at its next meeting. As happened with the release of the CPI, the equity markets might even reward this Fed increase, as opposed to the usual declines when the Fed is hiking rates. A boost to equities and bonds may result from a Fed signal of its commitment to fighting inflation. Chairman Warsh muddied the waters about his commitment to fight inflation back in July, and a Fed increase this time around will provide a boost to the inflation-fighting hawks and welcome relief to both stock and bond markets.

One Southern Indiana’s John Launius Departs to Join Indiana Economic Development Corporation as SVP

by with No Comment 1si News1si Press Release

Southern Indiana economic development leader to strengthen statewide business development efforts and partnerships with local and regional communities

NEW ALBANY, IN (Sept. 1, 2026) – One Southern Indiana (1si) today announced that John Launius, Senior Vice President and Chief Economic Development Officer, will depart the organization to join the Indiana Economic Development Corporation (IEDC) as Senior Vice President of Regional Economic Development. Launius will begin his new role Sept. 8.

Launius has led 1si’s economic development efforts since 2022, supporting Clark, Floyd and Scott Counties and helping position the region for significant business growth and investment. During his tenure, the region secured more than $3.3 billion in new investment commitments including over 5,200 new jobs.

In his new role, Launius will work with communities and regional economic development organizations across Indiana as part of the IEDC’s business retention, expansion, attraction and lead generation efforts. He will bring the regional perspective, relationships and best practices developed through his work in Southern Indiana to a statewide team focused on business growth and investment.

“Economic development works best when the state and our local and regional partners are pulling in the same direction,” said Indiana Secretary of Commerce Chuck Goodrich. “John understands that because he has lived it. He knows what businesses and communities need from the state, and he brings the relationships, experience and business mindset to help us deliver.”

“John’s leadership over the past four years has been instrumental in positioning Clark, Floyd and Scott Counties for unprecedented economic growth, helping drive more than $3 billion in capital investment to our region,” said Lance Allison, President and CEO of One Southern Indiana. “While we will certainly miss John at 1si, we are incredibly proud of his accomplishments and excited to see him take his talents to the IEDC, where we know he will make an even greater impact for communities across the state.”

Launius previously held executive leadership positions with Ivy Tech Community College’s Sellersburg Campus and Greater Louisville Inc. (GLI). He currently serves as Board Chair of the Indiana Economic Development Association and was named one of North America’s Top 50 Economic Developers by Consultant Connect in 2025.

“I’m incredibly excited to join the IEDC and build on work I care deeply about – helping businesses grow, communities thrive and Hoosiers find greater opportunity,” said Launius. “Working at the regional level has shown me what is possible when local leaders, regional partners and the state work together around a common goal. I look forward to bringing that perspective and the best practices I’ve learned in Southern Indiana to the statewide team, while learning from communities across Indiana and helping ensure every region is positioned to compete and succeed.”

About 1si

One Southern Indiana (1si) was formed in July 2006 as the economic development organization and chamber of commerce for Clark and Floyd Counties. Since 2023, 1si expanded economic development services into Scott County. 1si’s mission is to help businesses thrive in Southern Indiana. For more information, visit 1si.org.

Media Contact:

Melissa Sprigler, VP of Strategic Partnerships

MelissaS@1si.org  

812.206.9050