1si Non-Profit Spotlight

by with No Comment 1si NewsNonprofit Spotlight

Big Brothers Big Sisters of Kentuckiana matches children and teens ages 7-15 with an adult Big in a one-on-one mentorship. Their Big Futures program gives Bigs and Littles (and independent participants) ages 16 and up the option to continue their match and receive match support up to the age of 25. Their agency serves 10 counties: 7 in Kentucky (Jefferson, Shelby, Oldham, Bullitt, Hardin, Grayson, and Nelson) and 3 in Indiana (Clark, Floyd, and Harrison).

Watch the video below to learn how you can get involved with their mission.

Visit their website to learn more.

Why the Fed May Need to Act Sooner Than Expected

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development
Submitted by Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast
 

Inflation remains sticky, but a pathway to a rate cut is emerging

Financial markets are currently anticipating no interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. In fact, expectations have shifted dramatically, with markets now pricing in the next rate cut as late as June 2027, compared to expectations of three cuts at the beginning of this year.

While financial markets are not pricing in a cut until next year, the Fed should, and likely will, reduce rates this year.

The Federal Reserve operates under a Congressionally mandated dual mandate: to promote stable employment and low inflation. The current policy framework targets an inflation rate of 2%.

One of the challenges with the dual mandate is that these objectives can come into conflict. Strong employment growth, for example, can generate upward pressure on inflation, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates to slow the economy and bring inflation back toward its target.

Conversely, weak employment growth is often associated with lower inflation, typically during or near recessionary periods. In that case, the Fed will place greater emphasis on supporting employment.

In both scenarios, rate cuts are used to stimulate economic activity, while rate increases act as a brake to cool growth and inflation.

While the Fed remains focused on inflation, it is past time to shift greater emphasis toward the employment side of the mandate. Current labor market conditions justify a rate cut, not in June 2027, but sooner, potentially at one of the upcoming meetings.

Start with employment growth. Over 2025, job gains averaged just 15,000 per month, making it one of the weakest years of employment growth in more than two decades outside of recessionary periods. Importantly, much of that growth has been concentrated in health care. Excluding that sector, overall employment growth would be flat to negative, hardly indicative of a stable labor market.

Last month’s employment report came in stronger than expected, but the underlying details were less encouraging. Health care again accounted for a significant share of job gains, while the labor force participation rate declined and overall labor force growth softened.

Unemployment claims remain low, but hiring activity has slowed considerably. Employers are holding back. A rate cut would help stimulate demand and encourage firms to expand hiring.

On the inflation side, headline measures continue to run above the Fed’s 2% target. Recent increases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) were influenced in part by higher energy prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and a temporary spike in oil prices.

The Fed, however, focuses more closely on core inflation, which excludes food and energy. Core CPI has been more subdued, rising 2.6% over the past year. On a monthly basis, recent increases suggest inflation is running closer to a 2.4% annualized pace, still above target, but moving in the right direction.

The Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, remains somewhat elevated. Core PCE increased 0.4% last month and is running near 3% year-over-year. While still above target, there are reasons to expect moderation in the months ahead.

Concerns about stagflation, a combination of slower growth and persistent inflation, remain valid. However, with geopolitical pressures potentially easing and oil prices stabilizing, headline inflation should begin to move lower.

In this environment, the “stag” is likely to outweigh the “flation.” Slowing employment growth will push the Fed toward a more accommodative stance.

At the same time, gains in productivity, driven by technological investment and artificial intelligence, may help ease inflationary pressures, giving the Fed additional room to cut rates without reigniting inflation.

The Fed does not need to wait until 2027. The conditions for a rate cut are beginning to fall into place, and the window for action is opening sooner rather than later.

Welcome New Members | March 2026

by with No Comment 1si NewsWelcome New Members

One Southern Indiana welcomes the following members that joined or rejoined during the month of March 2026.

Thank You for Renewing Your Membership | March 2026

by with No Comment 1si NewsThank Your for Renewing Your Membership

One Southern Indiana would like to thank the following members for renewing their membership during the month of March 2026.

Quarter Century Club (25 years or more)Member Since
H&H Design-Build1976
Ricke Financial Advisory Group1977
Jeffersonville Housing Authority1984
Schuler Bauer Real Estate Services1985
News and Tribune1985
City of Charlestown1985
LifeSpring Health Systems1986
Jeffersonville Township Public Library1991
The Salvation Army1996
River Ridge Development Authority2001
  
10-24 Years 
Budget Services & Supplies, LLC2004
Cherry Bekaert (MCM CPAs & Advisors)2006
Harding, Shymanski & Company, P.S.C.2008
Delaco Kasle Processing Indiana2008
Delta Services LLC2009
Kentuckiana Wood Products, Inc.2011
Jones, Nale & Mattingly PLC2012
FBT Gibbons, LLP2012
Silver Heights Camp & Retreat Center2013
Schmitt Furniture Co.2013
Air Hydro Power2013
Nugent Sand Company2013
Semonin Realtors2014
Polaris Travel Experts2015
HMC Service Company, Inc.2015
Red7e2015
RE/MAX Pat Harrison Enterprises2016
Cardinal Pointe Financial Group2016
  
5-9 Years 
CE Hughes Milling, Inc.2017
The Mansion on Main2018
Riley Dental Group2018
Arnold Painting, LLC2019
Naked By Sunday2019
Clark’s Snacks2019
SERVPRO of Floyd, Clark, Harrison, Perry, Crawford, Orange, Washington & Scott Counties2020
Multiplex – a Welbilt Brand2020
Sleepy Rooster Morning Kitchen2020
Miranda Construction 2021
  
2-4 Years 
Medline Industries2022
Matrix Integration, LLC2022
BAYA – Beautiful as You Are2022
Operation Parent Inc2022
OHM Advisors2023
Fistful Craft Restaurant & Brewery2023
O.K.I Furniture Fair2023
Louisville Painting Company LLC2023
Rise Foundation, Inc.2023
Commonwealth Pain and Spine2023
NAMI Louisville2023
Cambria Hotel Louisville Downtown Whiskey Row2024
Andes Roofing2024
Small Talk Pediatric Therapy 2024
Floyd County Sheriff’s Office2024
ADE Food African Kitchen & Catering Services2024
  
One Year 
Crowe, LLP2025
Tailored Cleaning Services2025
The Jefferson2025
Enterprise Truck Rental2025
ID+A2025
Ashley|Rountree and Associates2025
Stonemark Granite2025
Commonwealth Credit Union2025
CS PowerTech2025

A Strong Jobs Report—With Some Important Caveats

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development
Submitted by Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast
 

Over the past couple of weeks, setting aside the recent stock market volatility, the incoming economic data have leaned positive. The main takeaway is that the Federal Reserve will likely push back any rate cuts that were previously expected.

The biggest positive surprise came from the monthly jobs report. The consensus forecast called for an increase of 60,000 jobs, but the economy added 178,000. Private sector job growth was even stronger, with 186,000 jobs added. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%.

One sector that has been shedding jobs showed a modest pickup. Manufacturing added 15,000 jobs, another sign that the sector may be seeing some green shoots after a couple of years of contraction.

It was not all positive, however. The labor force participation rate declined by one-tenth of a percentage point, and the labor force itself shrank by nearly 400,000 workers. Payroll revisions for January and February showed 7,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated.

And, similar to recent trends, a large share of job growth continues to come from healthcare. That is not necessarily a negative, but it does highlight that job growth outside of healthcare has slowed considerably. Since 2024, job growth in all other sectors combined is down more than 300,000 jobs, while healthcare employment has increased by nearly 900,000. The broader economy’s job engine, outside of healthcare, remains stuck.

Job openings declined from the prior month but came in slightly above expectations. Hiring, however, dropped sharply, with hires falling significantly from January levels. Excluding the COVID shock, this marks the steepest decline in hiring since the series began in 2000. In fact, hiring did not fall as sharply during the Great Recession as it did in February of this year.

While February represents only one data point, the magnitude of the decline provides further evidence of what has been described as a “no hire–no fire” economy. The gap between unemployed workers and job openings has widened, suggesting that the job market is becoming more competitive for those seeking employment. At the same time, layoffs, as measured by weekly unemployment claims, remain at very low levels.

We have discussed signs of improvement in manufacturing in recent weeks, and those signals continue to emerge. The latest ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing report showed additional expansion in March, marking three consecutive months of growth. Both new orders and production increased, pointing to a more positive trajectory for the sector.

However, the ISM report also indicated continued contraction in manufacturing employment. While the March jobs report showed a gain in manufacturing jobs, Eye on the Economy does not expect a surge in manufacturing employment, even with potential reshoring as supply chains adjust to ongoing trade policy uncertainty. Moving production from lower-cost regions to higher-cost environments does not necessarily translate into increased payrolls. To remain globally competitive, manufacturers will likely rely more on capital investment and automation. This is positive for the U.S. economy, but not necessarily for employment growth in that sector.

Recent data move us further away from an imminent recession, but stagflation remains a risk. Inflation continues to prove sticky, and with energy prices on the rise, price pressures may persist.

The latest jobs report was encouraging and helped reverse some recent weakness in job growth. However, the gains are not broadly distributed across the economy. For many, a more competitive job market will feel like a recession, even if the data say otherwise. And for consumers, higher gas prices ensure they won’t need a data release to feel it.

1si Celebrates 15 Years of Pearls of Wisdom 

by with No Comment 1si News

One Southern Indiana Chamber of Commerce and Economic Development (1si) is celebrating its 15th anniversary of their women’s speaker series, “Pearls of Wisdom: Women. Leading Women.” The program has traditionally centered on the experience of women business professionals and continues to celebrate women’s stories. 

“We’ve spent 15 years perfecting a place for women to share time, conversations, and a collective experience through our speaker series,” says Melissa Sprigler, Director of Investor Relations at 1si. “Together, we can take the ‘pearls of wisdom’ shared by our speakers and apply them to our own lives. It’s inspiring to be among like-minded individuals who lead with courage and help others see what’s possible for themselves.” 

Pearls of Wisdom was created because there was a need for women professionals to have a space to network, share business insights, and convene outside the workplace. Today, the event attracts 130+ audience members and happens on a quarterly basis, featuring four different women speakers a year. Each is from a different background, whether in an industry, profession, or life experience. The stories of the women often include obstacles they’ve overcome and the pearls of wisdom that contribute to their success. 

This year, One Southern Indiana is excited to announce their 2026 Speakers: 

  • March 4th, 2026: Speaker – Kate Latts, Co-President, Heaven Hill Brands 
  • June 3rd, 2026: Speaker – Leslie Lewis Sheets, Owner, LL&A Interior Design 
  • September 2nd,2026: Kelley McCall, Community Development Technical Lead Manager, Meta 
  • December 2nd, 2026: Nicole Yates, Chief Gov. Affairs & External Relations Officer, Physician Care Coordination Consultants (PC3 Health) 

Hear from some of our past speakers:

Women, men, and all are encouraged to participate. 

About One Southern Indiana  
One Southern Indiana (1si) was formed in July of 2006 as the economic development organization and chamber of commerce serving Clark and Floyd counties. 1si’s mission is to help businesses innovate and thrive in the southern Indiana / Louisville metro area via the four pillars of Business Resources, Economic Development, Advocacy, and Small Business Services. For more information on One Southern Indiana, visit www.1si.org.  

Contact 
Ellinor Smith 
ESmith@1si.org 
Phone: 217-320-4832 

A Cooling Labor Market Meets Regional Variation

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development
Submitted by Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast
 

When writing about the U.S. economy in 2025, payroll expansion is not what we would describe. The U.S. economy averaged just 15,000 jobs per month, one of the weakest job growth rates in more than 20 years outside of recessionary periods.

As we begin 2026, there is little evidence of a rebound. Last month, the economy lost an unexpected 92,000 jobs, well below expectations of a 60,000 gain. Revisions added to the weakness, with December payrolls revised from positive to negative and January’s gains trimmed by another 4,000 jobs.

Breaking the report down by sector does not improve the picture. After a brief increase in January, manufacturing returned to shedding jobs in February, losing 12,000 positions. Transportation and warehousing continued to decline, down another 11,000 jobs, this after adding 24,000 jobs in the same month a year ago.

Health care, one of the primary drivers of job growth over the past year, lost 19,000 jobs in February. While some have attributed the decline to temporary factors, such as labor disruptions on the West Coast, the report highlights how dependent overall job growth has become on this sector. When health care slows, overall job growth follows.

Leisure and hospitality also lost 27,000 jobs, reflecting ongoing challenges tied to higher costs and shifting consumer behavior.

The slowdown in hiring is now showing up more broadly in economic activity. The latest report on gross domestic product (GDP) indicates that fourth-quarter growth was just 0.7%, down from the prior estimate of 1.4%. The revision reflects weaker consumer spending, softer exports, and a decline in government spending, including effects tied to the fourth-quarter government shutdown.

At the same time, inflation remains sticky. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows inflation continuing to run above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while core producer prices, excluding food and energy, are approaching 4%. The preferred Fed inflation measure, minus food and energy, is running above 3%, well above the desired 2% target.

While consumers continue to feel the impact of higher prices, particularly at the gas pump, wage growth has remained strong. Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% over the past year, outpacing inflation, which has been running closer to 2.5%. This has helped support consumer spending, although rising gasoline and diesel prices will create headwinds.

Locally, the picture is more encouraging. Floyd and Clark Counties have continued to show steady growth. As of the third quarter, the two counties combined added nearly 1,000 jobs, exceeding the total number of jobs added across the five Southern Indiana counties that make up the Louisville Metro portion of the region.

Health care and social services led the way, adding 967 jobs and accounting for the majority of gains. Construction remained strong, adding another 253 jobs. However, transportation and warehousing declined by 453 jobs, and manufacturing employment fell by 71.

The economy is at a crossroads. Volatility in equity markets could dampen spending among higher-income households that have been the most resilient. Rising fuel costs are already weighing on consumer sentiment and risk spilling over into broader economic activity.

The combination of slower growth and persistent inflation raises the possibility of a stagflationary environment, an outcome that would place additional strain on consumers and businesses alike.

The economy is not currently in a recession, but the risks are rising, particularly if the U.S. labor market continues to show weak or declining momentum.

1si Non-Profit Spotlight: Vunerable Adult Care Advocates (V.A.C.A.)

by with No Comment 1si NewsNonprofit Spotlight

Vulnerable Adult Care Advocates is celebrating their 5th anniversary and expansion to 5 counties. Vulnerable Adult Care Advocates (VACA) is dedicated to protecting the rights, dignity, and well-being of seniors and vulnerable adults in Southern Indiana. 

The heart of its mission is the belief that every individual deserves a voice and compassionate support, especially once they are no longer able to advocate for themselves. Through court-appointed legal guardianship services and supported decision-making programs, VACA works to ensure that incapacitated adults receive safe, respectful, and person-centered care. 

Learn more by watching the video below and visiting their website: https://vulnerablecare.org/

How the Leisure and Hospitality Sector Rebounded – and What Comes Next – With Continued Growth in Floyd and Clark

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development
Submitted by Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast
 

Covid dealt a significant blow to the leisure and hospitality industry. Shutdowns, followed by various mandates and crowd restrictions, caused a sharp drop in employment across the sector.

In Louisville Metro, leisure and hospitality employment fell from roughly 69,000 workers to just 37,000 over the course of only a couple of months. Floyd and Clark County accommodation and food services employment dropped by a couple thousand.

As the economy gradually reopened, foot traffic returned. But restaurants and other establishments faced a new challenge: staffing. Businesses had customers willing to spend money, but they could not find enough workers to meet the demand. You might remember walking into a restaurant during that period and being told there was an hour wait, even though half the tables were empty. That wasn’t a demand problem. It was a staffing problem.

Households found extra cash following several rounds of government stimulus. This supported strong consumer spending on goods such as recreation equipment, camping and sporting goods, and home improvement items, anything that allowed people to spend time outdoors. RVs, for example, were selling like hotcakes.

After buying enough “stuff,” and as the economy continued to reopen, households began shifting their spending toward experiences, such as restaurants, concerts, and travel.

Growth in leisure and hospitality establishments continued as this experience-based economy gained momentum. By June 2024, employment in the Louisville Metro leisure and hospitality sector reached an all-time high, surpassing the pre-Covid peak by about 2,000 workers. The sector is highly seasonal, typically reaching its peak employment in June, and the June 2024 figure marked the highest level on record. In Floyd and Clark counties, employment in accommodation and food services reached a peak in the 2nd quarter of 2025, increasing by about 3% since pre-Covid, with 34 additional establishments.

Coming out of Covid, the sector faced several challenges, including staffing shortages and supply chain disruptions that made it difficult to obtain provisions and other inputs. Remember when it was tough to find chicken wings! At the same time, additional headwinds were developing.

Inflation reached a peak of roughly 9 percent in mid-2022, following the Federal Reserve rate hiking cycle that began in March 2022. Higher prices and rising wages have hit the restaurant industry particularly hard, and many establishments are still dealing with these pressures today.

Consider a few numbers that illustrate the challenges faced by the leisure and hospitality sector, which is dominated by restaurants and food services.

Since February 2020, the Consumer Price Index measure for Food Away From Home, the prices consumers pay when eating outside the home, has increased by about 35 percent.

Two of the largest costs faced by restaurants have also risen substantially. The Producer Price Index for All Foods, which reflects the prices paid by restaurants and food service establishments for food inputs, has increased about 31 percent since February 2020.

At first glance, that might appear manageable. Menu prices have increased by 35 percent while food costs have risen by 31 percent, suggesting slightly wider margins.

But labor costs tell a different story.

Average hourly wages in the leisure and hospitality sector have increased by a staggering 38 percent since early 2020. The combined rise in food costs and labor costs underscores the challenges that many restaurants and hospitality businesses face today. In Floyd and Clark County, for example, average weekly wages have gone from approximately $322 pre-Covid to $449 most recently, about a 39% increase.

After reaching a peak in June 2024, leisure and hospitality employment in Louisville Metro declined by roughly 3,500 jobs during 2025. This could reflect a combination of business closures, or establishments finding ways to reduce costs, perhaps by substituting technology or capital for labor in some cases. Floyd and Clark have bucked this trend, with recent data showing continued employment gains for 2025.

Leisure and hospitality was one of the largest contributors to job growth in the years immediately following Covid. The Louisville Metro decline observed during 2025 also coincides with a period of nearly flat overall employment growth across the metro region.

Restaurants and food service establishments are often one of the first places where shifts in consumer behavior show up. When households begin to feel pressure from higher prices, interest rates, or a softer labor market, dining out is one of the first expenses that tends to be scaled back. For that reason, trends in the leisure and hospitality sector can often provide an early signal of where the broader economy may be headed next. In Floyd and Clark, the trend has been mostly positive.

Advocacy Update 3.04.26

by with No Comment 1si NewsAdvocacy

As the Indiana State Session comes to an end, our Advocacy Committee reflects on the key issues and policy decisions shaping the future. The 2026 legislative session officially concluded on February 27, 2026. It saw the introduction of over 500 new bills, including significant measures related to affordability, education, and public safety. 

See the updates on the bills 1si has monitored, supported or opposed below. Our Advocacy Committee has been closely monitoring the legislation most relevant to our advocacy agenda. 

If you are interested in learning more about the topics that matter most to our region, attend our 2026 Regional Leadership Luncheon held March 18th, at IU Southeast from 11:30 a.m.-1:00 p.m. Register here.  

You will hear from:  

  • Kevin Baity, Clarksville Town Manager  
  • Bob Courtney, Mayor of Madison  
  • Dr. Treva Hodges, Mayor of Charlestown  
  • Terry Amick, Mayor of Scottsburg  
  • Justin Green, Mayor of Salem  
  • Reny Kenner, Georgetown Town Manager  

Bills we are monitoring:  

SB 4 Various Fiscal Matters  

Status:  

  • 2/27/2026: Rules Suspended. Conference Committee Report 1: adopted by the House; Roll Call 402: Yeas: 91, Nays: 0 
  • 2/27/2026: Rules Suspended. Conference Committee Report 1: adopted by the Senate; Roll Call 308: Yeas: 50, Nays: 0 
  • 2/27/2026: Signed by the President of the Senate 
  • 2/26/2026: CCR #1 filed in the House 

SB 76 Immigration matters   

Status:  

  • 2/27/2026: Signed by the President of the Senate 
  • 2/27/2026: Signed by the Speaker 
  • 2/25/2026: Senate concurred with House amendments; Roll Call 271: Yeas: 37, Nays: 11 
  • 2/17/2026: Senator Byrne added as coauthor 

SB 256 Foreign agent registration, foreign terrorist organizations, and foreign adversaries  

Status:  

  • 2/27/2026: Signed by the President of the Senate 
  • 2/27/2026: Conference Committee Report 1: adopted by the House: Roll Call 412: Yeas: 82, Nays: 13 
  • 2/27/2026: Rules Suspended. Conference Committee Report 1: adopted by the Seate; Roll Call 316: Yeas: 49, Nays: 0 
  • 2/27/2026: CCR #1 filed in the House 
  • 2/27/2026: Signed by the Speaker 

SB 281 Income tax credits  

Status:  

  • 2/12/2026: Committee report: amend do pass, adopted  
  • 2/05/2026: Representative Snow added as cosponsor  
  • 2/05/2026: Representative Lopez added as sponsor  
  • 2/05/2026: Representative Snow removed as sponsor  
  • 2/2/2026: First reading: referred to Committee on Ways and Means  

SB 283 Regional Development Tax Credit  

Status:  

  • Did not advance; Inactive.  
  • 1/12/2026: First reading: referred to Committee on Tax and Fiscal Policy  
  • 1/12/2026: Authored by Senators Mishler, Niezgodski  

HB 1101 Regional Economic Development  

Status:  

  • Did not advance; Inactive.  
  • 1/05/2026: First reading: referred to Committee on Ways and Means  
  • 1/05/2026: Coauthored by Representatives Snow, Lehman  
  • 1/05/202: Authored by Representative Heine  

HB 1164 Tax Increment Financing Districts  

Status:  

  • Did not advance; Inactive.  
  • 1/05/2026: First Reading: referred to Committee on Ways and Means  
  • 1/05/2026: Authored by Representative Rowray  

HB 1333 Land use and development  

Status:  

  • Did not advance; Inactive.  
  • 2/05/2026: First reading: referred to Committee on Utilities  
  • 2/03/2026: Referred to the Senate  
  • 2/02/2026: Senate sponsors: Senators Koch Doriot  
  • 2/02/2026: Third reading: passed; Roll Call 195  
  • Yeas: 54  
  • Nays: 45  

Bills we support:  

HB 1018 School age childcare  

Status:  

  • 2/23/2026: Signed by the President of the Senate  
  • 2/19/2026: Signed by the President Pro Tempore  
  • 2/19/2026: Signed by the Speaker  
  • 2/18/2026: Returned to the House without amendments  
  • 2/17/2026: Third reading: passed; Roll Call 172: Yeas: 45, Nays: 0  

HB 1177 Child care assistance  

Status:  

  • 2/27/2026: Signed by the President of the Senate 
  • 2/26/2026: Signed by the Speaker 
  • 2/24/2026: Returned to the House without amendments 
  • Senator Alting added as cosponsor 

Bills we oppose:  

HB 1104 Nondisclosure Agreements in Economic Development  

Status:  

  • Did not advance; Inactive.  
  • 1/12/2026: Representative Commons added as coauthor  
  • 1/05/2026: First reading: referred to Committee on Government and Regulatory Reform  
  • 1/05/2026: Authored by Representative Greene  

You can find a copy of the 1si 2026 Advocacy Agenda by visiting https://1si.org/advocacy/ or downloading a PDF copy here.