Please welcome our newest members that joined or rejoined during the month of September 2024.
Economic Update | Local Payrolls Accelerated – State Unemployment Rates Increase
submitted by
Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast
Job counts by the county level are out for early 2024, and the data show continued growth in payrolls for Southern Indiana (Clark, Floyd, Harrison, Scott, Washington). The latest QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages) data show that the five counties added 1,389 jobs, compared to the prior year. This was an acceleration from the last quarter of 2023, after hitting a trough of a plus 609 in the 3rd quarter of 2023. Transportation and warehousing was the leading industry in terms of job creation, adding another 972 positions compared to the prior year. This is the second consecutive quarter that transportation and warehousing saw positive job growth. Coming out of the pandemic, transportation and warehousing job creation had surged but saw retrenchment in late 2022 and 2023. Healthcare payroll growth decelerated from the previous quarter, adding another 687 jobs. While this was a slower pace, healthcare has been the leading industry in job creation since the 4th quarter of 2022. In that quarter, accommodation and food services led all industries with an addition of 1,524 jobs.
Manufacturing saw another drop in payrolls. Manufacturing jobs have shown declines in the past four quarters, and from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, payrolls are down by 855. Nationally, manufacturing has been in a slump, with the ISM Index under 50 since 2022, except for one month. An ISM under 50 signifies contraction, and this slump shows up in payroll declines across Southern Indiana. Higher interest rates have strained growth in interest rate-sensitive sectors like manufacturing. Auto sales, a key driver of manufacturing production in Indiana and Kentucky, are at historically low levels, and this is likely contributing to local manufacturing job losses.
Accommodation and food services saw another drop in payrolls, declining by 219 jobs. Accommodation and food services are now down in job growth for three consecutive quarters, reversing some of the strong gains over 2022. Even with the declines of 2023 and 2024, total payrolls are about 1,000 higher than pre-pandemic totals.
Statewide, unemployment rates for Indiana and Kentucky saw another uptick for the month of August. Indiana’s unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, compared to 3.4% the year prior. In Kentucky, the unemployment rate inched closer to 5%, with the latest reading at 4.8%. This compares to 4.2% the year prior. In both states, the number of unemployed increased. Indiana fared better with job growth, with the latest data showing an addition of 20,000 jobs state-wide. Kentucky saw a small decline in growth for August.
The Fed threw a surprise last week with a 50-basis points decline in the Fed Funds rate. This was not completely unexpected. During the prior week, sentiment had shifted, and a decline of 50 basis points became increasingly likely. Initial market reaction was muted, with the major indexes finishing down on the day. However, equity markets surged the day after, with all major indices up more than 1% each. Uncertainties remain, but the economy continues to move in the direction of a soft landing.
As we move past inflation as the economic indicator to watch, measures about the labor market and the consumer will take on increasing importance. The employment report is back to the top as the Super Bowl of economic indicators, and because the consumer drives 2/3rds of the U.S. economy, consumer-related economic indicators will be watched closely was well.
Nonprofit Spotlight | Volunteers of America Mid-States
Volunteers of America Mid-States
2676 Charlestown Rd., Suite 10
New Albany, IN 47150
Phone: (502) 384-0868 Ext. 4
www.voamid.org
Contact Person: Mary Ellen Howard, Sr. Director of Communications & Marketing
Agency Mission Statement or Description:
Year established: 1896
Counties/regions serviced: Clark & Floyd counties in Indiana
Focus areas: Volunteers of America Mid-States operates three service lines in Southern Indiana—VOA Honor which is Veteran support, VOA Community which is housing and supported employment for adults with Developmental and Intellectual Disabilities, and VOA Health provides grassroots outreach designed to address the root causes of health disparities and inequities by focusing on the social determinants of health and connecting area residents with access to high-quality health care.
Impact in community: We empower communities through human service. In this area our services are for veterans, adults with disabilities and connecting area residents to high-quality healthcare. Also, distributing safe sex supplies and providing education resources.
Volunteer Opportunities:
How 1si members can help your organization: We have volunteer opportunities like hosting a donation drives in the community. This can be for clothing, personal hygiene supplies and we also collect frozen turkeys in November.
Additional information:
Volunteers of America Mid-States operates three service lines in Southern Indiana—VOA Honor, VOA Community, and VOA Health.
VOA Honor offers a Supportive Services for Veteran Families program (SSVF), which helps low-income veteran families who reside in or are transitioning to permanent housing secure residential stability. VOA Honor also has a VOA’s Moral Injury and Preventing Suicide (MIPS) program, which provides case management to connect veterans, active-duty members, and veterans who are first responders to mental health services that prevent suicide and address moral injury, bringing stability to them and their families.
VOA Community provides Developmental Disability Services, which help individuals with developmental disabilities live safe, healthy, and engaged lives. Services include health care coordination, transportation, and around-the-clock care. The Clark County and Floyd County Indiana program is comprised of a network of nine neighborhood-based homes, community-based services, and in-home care. Also, those able are encouraged to become involved in their communities, which is made possible through VOA’s support staff and other specialized services.
VOA Community also has a Supported Employment team work to find fulfilling, rewarding, and productive jobs for individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities. We work with area employers to find jobs that match our individuals’ skill sets and abilities. We look to put them in a position to succeed personally and to be valuable employees in their workplaces.
VOA Health operates a Determined Health program with a Community Health Worker who provides grassroots outreach designed to address the root causes of health disparities and inequities by focusing on the social determinants of health and connecting area residents with access to high-quality health care. Our Outreach and Prevention program also distributes safe sex supplies in Clark and Floyd Counties.
Economic Update | An Employment Report for All
submitted by
Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast
The Super Bowl of economic indicators was released last week, and there was news for the pessimists and optimists. On the negative side, payrolls rebounded from the prior month, increasing by 142,000, compared to 114,000 the prior month. While the 142,000 gain was an uptick from July, it was less than the consensus forecast of 165,000. Manufacturing, in a slump for more than a year, saw a decline of 24,000 jobs. The decline was attributed to a 25,000 drop in jobs in durable goods manufacturing.
Health care continued the upward rise in job creation, adding another 31,000 payrolls. Construction saw an unexpected pick-up, adding 34,000 jobs, higher than the 12-month average of 19,000. The average workweek increased from 34.2 hours to 34.3, and average hourly earnings increased by .4%, higher than anticipated.
On the plus side, the unemployment rate ticked back down to 4.2%. The labor force expanded by 120,000, but employment increased by 168,000. This combination led to an overall decline in unemployment and the unemployment rate. Last month, the unemployment rate increased, and this was partially attributed to the spike in temporary unemployment. Temporary unemployment fell again this month, and this was one of the reasons for the unemployment rate decline.
Prior month revisions shaved 86,000 in payrolls from the prior two months. This slower payroll growth will be closely scrutinized by the Fed at the September meeting, along with the higher-than-expected increase in average hourly earnings.
More signs of a labor market slowdown came last week with the release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Job openings declined to a level last observed in early 2021 and are almost on par with the number of unemployed. Openings exceeded the number of unemployed by double back in early 2022. The balance between openings and unemployed does reflect the normalization of the labor market, but we should expect the number of unemployed to exceed job openings as we move through 2024 and into 2025.
Turning to Indiana and Kentucky, we are seeing an overall increase in unemployment rates. Kentucky’s unemployment rate is up to 5.3%, compared to 4.6% last year. Indiana’s unemployment rate is up to 5%, up from 3.7% last year. Job growth in both states has slowed, with manufacturing showing declines from last year. Indiana manufacturing jobs are down 6,000 and Kentucky down by 4,000.
Softening is also evident across Indiana and Kentucky metro regions. All Kentucky metro areas now have an unemployment rate that exceeds 5%, except for Lexington. The highest unemployment rate is Elizabethtown at 5.5%, and Lexington had the lowest at 4.3%. Indiana has several metro areas with unemployment rates well above 5%. Kokomo has the highest at 7%, and Muncie is just behind with an unemployment rate of 6.3%.
40-year high inflation resulted in higher interest rates, impacting rate-sensitive sectors like manufacturing, and this shows up through weaker payroll growth or losses. One example of the impact of higher interest rates on IN and KY manufacturing is in the auto industry. Higher interest rates suppressed auto sales due to the higher cost of financing. Kentucky and Indiana are heavy auto manufacturing states, and the historically low auto sales nationwide also impact manufacturing employment in both states. National manufacturing has been in a slump, and heavy manufacturing states, like Indiana and Kentucky, are feeling the effects of this slower manufacturing environment.
We can still expect a rate reduction of .25% by the Fed at their September meeting. Some are calling for a reduction of .5%, but the economy is not weak enough to justify it. We’ll likely see similar cuts of .25% in November and December. Last week saw a drop in the 10-Year Treasury yield, so we will likely see additional progress in lower mortgage rates. Declining interest rates will provide a stimulus to interest rate sectors, and the economy overall. The consumer continues to show some resilience, and while we continue to believe that the economy will be in a soft patch, we are still not ready to call a recession.
Now Seeking Nominations and Applications for the 2024 ONCE Awards!
AWARD CATEGORIES
- Duke Energy Kevin Hammersmith Community Leader
- Axiom Financial Strategies Group James W. Robinson Young Professional of the Year
- Kightlinger & Gray, LLP Sam Day Professional of the Year
- Rising Star Award is given to a company who has been in business from 1-5 years.
- Cherry Bekaert Business of the Year Award for companies with 50 or less employees
- German American Bank Business of the Year Award for companies with 51 or more employees
- Centra Credit Union Non-Profit Program of the Year
- Ivy Tech Community College DE&I Initiative Award
- Minority Business of the Year
- Harding, Shymanski & Company, P.S.C. Manufacturer of the Year
NOMINATE
If you know an individual or organization that should apply for one of the following ONCE Award categories, click here to nominate them.
APPLY
If you would like to apply for one of the categories, click here to complete the application.
The 2024 ONCE Awards will be held on Thursday, November 14th at Caesars Southern Indiana so SAVE THE DATE!
Thanks for Renewing Your Membership | August 2024
One Southern Indiana would like to thank the following members for renewing their membership during the month of August 2024.
| Quarter Century Club (25 Years or More) | Member Since |
| Frank Stemler & Sons dba Stemler Plumbing | 1977 |
| AAA Hoosier Motor Club | 1984 |
| Chase | 1988 |
| Community Foundation of Southern Indiana | 1995 |
| Chemtrusion, Inc. | 1996 |
| Renaissance Design Build, Inc. | 1999 |
| Ten to 24 Years | |
| Youth Link Southern Indiana | 2004 |
| Caesars Foundation of Floyd County | 2005 |
| Mariner Wealth Advisors | 2005 |
| Impact Sales Systems | 2007 |
| Talis Group, Inc. | 2007 |
| Northern Continental Logistics | 2008 |
| American Beverage Marketers, Inc. | 2009 |
| C3 Tech | 2009 |
| Town of Clarksville | 2009 |
| HJI Supply Chain Solutions | 2010 |
| Lindsey Wilson College | 2010 |
| LifeSpan Resources, Inc. | 2012 |
| Lotus Sign & Design | 2012 |
| Brown-Forman | 2014 |
| World Trade Center Kentucky | 2014 |
| Five to Nine Years | |
| Louisville Orthopaedic Clinic | 2015 |
| Knapheide Truck Equipment Co. | 2016 |
| Louisville Zoo | 2016 |
| South Central Regional Airport Authority | 2016 |
| Groups Recover Together | 2017 |
| PMC Regional Hospital | 2017 |
| Franklin Pest Solutions | 2018 |
| KY-IN Paralyzed Veterans of America | 2018 |
| McRae Enterprises, LLC | 2018 |
| Cattleman’s Roadhouse | 2019 |
| Progressive Material s | 2019 |
| Wooded Glen Recovery Center | 2019 |
| Two to Four Years | |
| Big O Tires – Sellersburg | 2020 |
| Conrad Brothers Moving & Storage | 2020 |
| East End Crossing Partners | 2020 |
| Hilton Garden Inn Jeffersonville Louisville North | 2020 |
| Idemitsu Lubricants America Corporation | 2020 |
| Avant-Garde Turnstiles | 2021 |
| Harry’s Taphouse and Kitchen | 2021 |
| River City Bank of Kentucky | 2021 |
| Southern Indiana United Soccer Club | 2021 |
| Stein Law | 2021 |
| Zoeller Pump Company | 2021 |
| CertaPro Painters of Kentuckiana | 2022 |
| EightTwenty | 2022 |
| Lamar Advertising | 2022 |
| Louisville Low Voltage LLC | 2022 |
| RQAW Corporation | 2022 |
| Shrewsberry & Associates, LLC | 2022 |
| Taft Law | 2022 |
| TNT Fireworks | 2022 |
| Upland Brewing Company | 2022 |
| One Year | |
| AJ Business Consulting | 2023 |
| Alee Solutions | 2023 |
| Charleston Place at New Albany | 2023 |
| Classic Truss and Wood Components, Inc. | 2023 |
| Cornerstone Insurance Agency, LLC | 2023 |
| Lilys SoftWash LLC | 2023 |
| Office Resources, Inc. | 2023 |
| Resort 4 Paws | 2023 |
| Unbreakable Bonds Catering LLC | 2023 |
| Versa Designed Surfaces | 2023 |
Welcome New Members | August 2024
One Southern Indiana would like to welcome the following new members that joined or rejoined during the month of August 2024.
- Airtech Heating and Cooling Services
- American Roofing & Metal Co.
- Bluegrass Supply Chain
- Connect-Abilities
- Edward Jones – Jeanine Morris
- Ferro Foot & Ankle
- GK Installs
- Hitchcock Design Group
- Lewellyn’s Sealcoating
- Moxi Creative Lab LLC
- Purdue University – Southern Indiana Engagement
- Rotary Club of New Albany
- Southern Indiana Dent
- Unrivaled Solutions
Economic Update | And Still No Recession
submitted by
Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast
The Federal Reserve received the data it needed to finally pivot from an inflation emphasis to a focus on employment, and along with that, a signal of the first interest rate cut. The last CPI (Consumer Price Index) came in weaker than expected, both at the headline number and the core rate (CPI minus food and energy). The PPI (Producer Price Index), issued just a day before CPI, also came in softer than expected. The favorable inflation readings, along with the weak employment report for July, combined to provide a green light to the Federal Reserve for a potential rate cut come September. Equity markets approved and are again pushing all-time highs. The market meltdown from early August is a distant memory.
Emerging from the pandemic has led to challenges for the economic forecasting industry. Predictions of recessions have yet to materialize. The last national employment report, for example, triggered the so-called Sahm Rule, which basically says that the economy is in a recession if the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate rises by more than .5 percentage points from the lowest 3-month average unemployment rate over the past 12 months. It has been historically accurate and only produced two false positives since 1959. 2024 may be the 3rd.
The yield curve, quite accurate for every recession since the early 80s, has also produced a recession signal that has yet to be accurate. The yield curve inverts when rates on 10-Year Treasury securities are lower than shorter-term rates, such as the yield on 2-Year Treasuries. The current yield curve became inverted back in July 2022, and a recession has not been declared. My outlook back in November 2022 included a recession call for 2023, and clues from the yield curve was one of the primary reasons. Higher interest rates have slowed the economy, as intended, but not to the extent of a recession declaration.
Another measure, industrial production, was also flashing a possible recession signal starting last year. Industrial production, which measures the output in manufacturing, mining, and utilities, coincides with a recession when year-over-year changes become negative. Going back to the 1920s, a negative change in industrial production not resulting in a recession has only occurred on three separate occasions. Over the past year, year-over-year changes in industrial production have hovered around 0, with 9 of 12 months being negative. So, the current cycle may be the 4th time that industrial production has turned negative, but absent a recession.
Another economic indicator with some information about the state of the economy is new claims for unemployment. As the economy slows, layoffs increase, leading to higher unemployment rates, less consumer spending, and an upward spiral of overall slower growth. For unemployment claims, the number to watch is about 350,000. This is not a precise rule, but when new claims for unemployment approach 350,000 or surpass that level, a recession may be likely. The latest claims for unemployment were at 232,000, and the highest level for 2024 was 243,000.
During a recession, consumers are expected to spend less on goods and services. But this is not always the case. In the 2001 dot com recession, spending on both goods and services increased from recession start to recession end. During the Great Recession, spending on services remained just about flat, but goods spending saw noticeable declines. In the quick Covid recession, spending on both goods and services plummeted, but quickly recovered and saw subsequent spikes in both goods and services spending to all-time highs. Goods spending saw some declines from 2023 to 2024 but has stabilized since. Services spending continues unabated. Based on recessions going back to 2001, reductions in both goods and services spending are not necessarily present during a recession, however. While we can probably rule out a complete collapse of the consumer, softening in both goods and services spending is still likely.
Data continue to point to an overall softening of the economy, but not quite a recession, just yet. The soft landing is in sight once again.
Nonprofit Spotlight | Jeffersonville Township Public Library
Jeffersonville Township Public Library
Jefflibrary.org
211 E. Court Avenue
Jeffersonville, IN 47130
812-285-5633
Contact person: David Seckman, Executive Director
1312 Eastern Blvd.
Clarksville, IN 47129
812-416-8128
Contact person: Dave Thomas, Foundation President
Vision Statement:
Sharing the Joy of Lifelong Learning by Connecting People and Ideas
Year established:
1852. The Jeffersonville Township Public Library has its roots in the workingmen’s library movement of the early 1800’s.
Counties/regions serviced:
Southern Indiana, with an emphasis on the Clark County cities of Jeffersonville and Clarksville, while enjoying reciprocity agreements with surrounding counties and their library systems.
Focus areas:
The Jeffersonville Township Public Library (JTPL) is a vibrant cultural and educational, community destination that welcomes everyone to gather, engage, create, learn, and grow.
Impact in Community:
The Jeffersonville Township Public Library connects people and ideas through experiences, technology, and information in the pursuit of lifelong learning.
Volunteer Opportunities:
Volunteer at the library, or with the Friends of the Library, serve on the Library Foundation Board or as a Trustee.
How 1si members can help:
There are a multitude of ways to help YOUR library that will enhance your business or organization. Planned Giving, Corporate Donations, Payroll Deduction, Point of Sale contributions or becoming a corporate sponsor of the Summer Reading Program.
Offer library cards to your employees, use our resources to obtain hardbound and audio books, puzzles, movies, music and documentary CD’s, free tutoring, online database access, computer labs, programs, training, job postings and search resources, historical, business, geographic, scientific, and genealogical research, make inexpensive purchases of all media types from our massive used bookstore and book free rooms for study or group meetings!
Attend the 1si Non-profit Round-table discussion on August 14th, at the library. Jeffersonville Township Public Library at 211 E. Court Avenue, Jeffersonville, IN 47130. Beginning at 8:30 AM and held in our North Program Room (immediately on your right when entering the library), we will be concluding discussions on Board Involvement and providing coffee and donuts!
Additional information:
Single or repetitive giving opportunities are available online, in-person, by mail, electronic (wire) transfer, wills, bequests, endowment contributions, stock, security, life insurance, real estate, or artifact donations to the Jeffersonville Township Public Library Foundation.
We welcome the opportunity to work with your investment or tax professional to arrange an IRS section 135 tax exempt donation. Click here to donate, or contact us:
Donate: http://www.jefflibrary.org
Contact: foundation@jefflibrary.org
Jeffersonville Steel Processing Company Chooses Ports of Indiana-Jeffersonville for Major Expansion
voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation significantly grows Jeffersonville operations
Jeffersonville, IN. (Aug. 19, 2024)
voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation (RFC) will move forward on a major expansion of its Jeffersonville operations. The expansion includes a new production line for frame rails for several major global customers, including over $77,900,000 in construction, equipment, and other related services. The expansion will also include over 100 new jobs that will meet or exceed the Clark County average wage.
voestalpine RFC, a supplier of roll formed metal, services several different industries, including aerospace, construction, material handling, off-highway, office furniture, solar, and transportation, is wholly owned by voestalpine AG, a globally leading steel and technology group operating in over 50 countries.
“This next chapter of growth for RFC would not be possible without the support from state and local leaders. We look forward to expanding our business operations with this transformative project adding long-term infrastructure, employment opportunities and overall value to the Jeffersonville community for years to come,” said Kevin Dierking, President & CEO, voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation.
“Indiana has a rich tradition of manufacturing and delivering high quality materials that power the world around us thanks to commitment of companies like voestalpine,” said IEDC Chief Strategy Officer Ann Lathrop. “The company’s continued growth and industry partnership in Southern Indiana will help advance critical industries, from aerospace to energy to infrastructure and transportation, while supporting job growth and community development in Jeffersonville and the surrounding region.”
“We are thrilled voestalpine RFC continues to find success in Jeffersonville and has officially decided to significantly grow operations at their Ports of Indiana-Jeffersonville location, adding over 100 new jobs, all of which are at or above the county average wage,” said Mayor Mike Moore. “The City of Jeffersonville’s continued focus on quality of place, complimented with a competitive business environment, has set the stage for this continued momentum and long-term community impact.”
“Our team is very pleased that voestalpine RFC has chosen Ports of Indiana-Jeffersonville for its new operations,” said Ports of Indiana CEO Jody Peacock. “voestalpine RFC is a forward-thinking leader in producing specialized roll-formed metal for vital sectors like aerospace, construction, solar energy, and transportation. Establishing the new facility adjacent to their current operations allows voestalpine to capitalize on the port’s multimodal connections, comprehensive logistics services and operational synergies, thereby strengthening their competitive edge.”
“Voestalpine has operated in this region for years, and when a customer of ours chooses to expand here, it’s a win for Hoosiers,” said Duke Energy Indiana President Stan Pinegar. “We are glad to work with them to help make this possible. This will bring both capital investment and jobs—both permanent and construction—to the community.”
“One Southern Indiana welcomes this announcement from RFC and celebrates another win for our growing community,” said One Southern Indiana CEO and President Lance Allison. “This announcement offers our residents and industry a growing opportunity and is yet another indicator of our regional strength and capacity to support global industry leaders such as RFC.”
Based on the company’s job creation plans, the Indiana Economic Development Corporation (IEDC) will commit an investment in voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation of up to $2 million in the form of incentive-based tax credits and up to $2 million in Hoosier Business Investment tax credits. These tax credits are performance-based, meaning the company is eligible to claim incentives once Hoosiers are hired.
About voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation
voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation supplies custom roll formed metal components into several industries including Aerospace, Construction, Material Handling, Off-Highway, Office Furniture, Solar and Transportation.
In 2000, Roll Forming Corporation was acquired by globally leading steel and technology group voestalpine AG joining the Metal Forming, Tubes and Sections division. In 2001, voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation became a corporate partner to the state of Indiana by adding a manufacturing facility in Jeffersonville, Indiana.
Today, voestalpine Roll Forming Corporation has seven production facilities across three states with five facilities and headquarters located in Shelby County, Kentucky and one facility each in Pennsylvania and Indiana.
About Ports of Indiana: Ports of Indiana is a statewide port authority operating three ports on the Ohio River and Lake Michigan. Established in 1961, Ports of Indiana is a self-funded enterprise dedicated to growing Indiana’s economy by developing and maintaining a world-class port system, and by serving as a statewide resource for maritime issues, international trade, and multimodal logistics. Web: www.portsofindiana.com
About Duke Energy
Duke Energy Indiana, a subsidiary of Duke Energy, provides about 6,300 megawatts of owned electric capacity to approximately 900,000 customers in a 23,000-square-mile service area, making it Indiana’s largest electric supplier.
About One Southern Indiana
One Southern Indiana (1si) was formed in July of 2006 as the economic development organization and chamber of commerce serving Clark and Floyd counties. 1si’s mission is to help businesses innovate and thrive in the Southern Indiana / Louisville metro area via the three pillars of Business Resources, Economic Development, and Advocacy. Web: www.1si.org
Contact:
voestalpine AG
mediarelations@voestalpine.com
One Southern Indiana
Brittany Schmidt, Manager of Programs, Events, and Groups
BrittanyS@1si.org
812-945-0266
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