The last 12 months would not be described as a robust labor market. Indiana has now recorded seven consecutive months of negative year-over-year job changes. Outside of an official recession, this is the longest streak of negative year-over-year declines since 2003. Negative year-over-year job losses typically coincide with a recession, but no recession has occurred, making this trend even more concerning for Indiana.
Despite the overall weakness in payroll growth, there have been some encouraging signs that mirror positive developments in the national labor market. Education and healthcare has been the leading sector supporting payrolls over the past year, with the latest data showing a gain of 8,000 jobs. This relationship is typical. When overall job growth weakens, healthcare is often the most resilient sector and continues to expand. During the past four recessions, overall payrolls declined while education and health care remained in positive territory.
One bright spot in the Indiana labor market is growth in professional and business services, which is up 5,000 jobs over the year. Growth in professional and business services is often associated with business expansion and increasing demand for highly skilled workers. This time last year, employment in the sector was down 3,000 jobs, and overall payroll growth subsequently contracted. As a result, growth among professional and business services workers, often referred to as knowledge workers, is an encouraging sign for the broader economy.
Retail employment is also up by 5,000 jobs over the year. Retail employment gains are further evidence of consumer resilience. Despite higher interest rates and elevated prices, households have continued to spend, supporting retail activity and broader economic growth.
The largest declines in private-sector employment have occurred in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and leisure and hospitality. However, the most significant year-over-year decline has been in government employment, which is down nearly 17,000 jobs from a year ago. In fact, if government employment had remained flat, Indiana would be reporting growth in overall payrolls.
As we move through 2026, payroll growth should become more broad-based, allowing Indiana to return to positive year-over-year job gains. There are, however, some storm clouds on the horizon in the form of higher interest rates. Elevated rates were a major factor behind the slowdown in manufacturing, and persistently high borrowing costs could restrain the recovery that is beginning to emerge.
One of the conclusions from my recent Mid-Year Economic Outlook was that payroll growth would begin to accelerate both regionally and nationally. The latest national employment report showed the U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs, well above market expectations. Equity markets responded with one of their sharpest declines of the year. Stronger job growth combined with stubborn inflation suggests interest rates may remain higher for longer.
Even so, I expect inflation to trend lower during the remainder of the year. Both the Consumer Price Index and the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE Price Index continue to reflect inflationary pressures, but several factors should contribute to moderation. Lower energy prices would contribute to easing headline inflation. Core inflation should also ease as the supply side of the economy continues to improve.
Manufacturing indicators such as the ISM Index have strengthened, while durable goods orders, factory orders, and industrial production have all shown improvement. This should bode well for Indiana. Job openings are also beginning to trend higher as the labor market recovers from the turbulence of the past year.
Indiana’s labor market is not yet firing on all cylinders however, but the underlying trends are positive. The challenge for the remainder of the year will be whether inflation and interest rates allow that recovery to broaden across more sectors of the economy. The likely scenario is that Indiana should soon move beyond its period of negative year-over-year job changes as payroll growth accelerates during the second half of the year.