Thank You for Renewing Your Membership | August 2025

by with No Comment 1si NewsThank Your for Renewing Your Membership

One Southern Indiana would like to thank the following members for renewing their membership during the month of August 2025.

Quarter Century Club (25 Years or More)Member Since
AT&T Indiana1976
Geo. Pfau’s Sons Company, Inc.1976
Bachman Auto Group1976
AAA Hoosier Motor Club1984
MAC Construction & Excavating, Inc.1992
Nimlok Kentucky1994
Monroe Shine & Co., Inc., CPA’s1994
Community Foundation of Southern Indiana1995
Renaissance Design Build, Inc.1999
  
Ten to 24 Years 
Heartland, A Global Payments Company2004
Youth Link Southern Indiana2004
Highlander Point Center2006
Impact Sales Systems2007
Bowles Mattress Co., Inc.2007
Talis Group, Inc.2007
Gilda’s Club Kentuckiana2008
Prosser Career Education Center2009
Stoll Keenon Ogden PLLC (aka SKO)2009
C3 Tech2009
American Beverage Marketers, Inc.2009
Jimmy John’s2011
Stumler’s Catering2011
The Center for Women & Families2011
Heritage Engineering, LLC2012
Lotus Sign & Design2012
LifeSpan Resources, Inc.2012
ProMedia Group, LLC2013
Culver’s of Jeffersonville2014
Estes Waste Solutions, LLC2014
Ronald McDonald House Charities of Kentuckiana2015
  
Five to Nine Years 
Cornell Harbison Excavating, Inc.2016
Infinite Solutions, LLC2016
H & H Metal Products, Inc.2016
South Central Regional Airport Authority2016
Trinity Dynamics, Inc.2016
KFC2017
Louisville Water Co.2017
Volunteers of America Mid-States2017
PMC Regional Hospital2017
ARC Janitorial Supply2018
Shepherd Insurance – New Albany2018
KY-IN Paralyzed Veterans of America2018
Franklin Pest Solutions2018
Hanover College2018
KCC Manufacturing2019
Hollenbach-Oakley2019
Martin’s Body Shop2020
Conrad Brothers Moving & Storage2020
  
Two to Four Years 
Benchmark Family Services2021
Stein Law2021
Harry’s Taphouse and Kitchen2021
Kentuckiana Mortgage Group Inc.2022
Unbreakable Bonds Catering LLC2023
Spectrum Reach2023
Clarksville Little Theatre2023
AJ Business Consulting2023
Premier Homes of Southern Indiana, Inc.2023
Classic Truss and Wood Components, Inc.2023
Spherion Staffing & Recruiting2023
ATTC Manufacturing, Inc.2023
Alee Solutions 2023
  
One Year 
P.U.S.H. Transportation Company LLC2024
Legacy Commercial Property2024
Foundation Home Loans Inc2024
Connect-Abilities2024
American Roofing & Metal Co.2024
Hitchcock Design Group2024
Airtech Heating and Cooling Services2024
University of Louisville Athletic Department 2024
Schiller2024
Town of Utica2025

Indiana’s Economy and the Manufacturing Cycle

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development

Submitted by Uric Dufrene, Ph. D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

Indiana’s economic health continues to move in tandem with national manufacturing trends. As one of the top five states for manufacturing job concentration, Indiana gains when manufacturing booms — and feels the sting when it stalls. Today, high interest rates and inflation pressures are weighing on durable goods output, leading to a slowdown in manufacturing activity. With payrolls shrinking across the U.S. and right here in Indiana, and key indicators such as the ISM Index and industrial production flashing caution, the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts can’t come soon enough for this vital sector.

Because of this close connection, national manufacturing performance directly influences job creation in Indiana. When national manufacturing is on the upswing, so are jobs here. And when manufacturing slows, the impact is felt with a reduction in jobs added.

One persistent drag on manufacturing over the past two years has been the higher interest rate environment — prompted by elevated post-pandemic inflation and a Federal Reserve that responded late. Longer-lasting manufactured durable goods are interest rate sensitive, and higher rates curb production, while lower rates provide a boost. The sector should receive a lift due to a September interest rate cut now more likely.

The national manufacturing slowdown shows up in different indicators. For example, since October 2022, the ISM Manufacturing Index has indicated contraction — hovering below the 50 threshold with a brief exception in February this year. That makes it nearly three years (excluding February) of sub-50 readings, the longest stretch since the early 1990s — around the time of the 1990 recession. The downturn during the Great Recession and the sharp fall during the COVID shutdown were notable but relatively brief. The New Orders component of the index has been declining since January 2025.

Industrial production tells a similar story. Year-on-year growth has trended downward since October 2022, and has generally hovered near or below zero since late 2023 — a meaningful warning sign given that recessions often follow when industrial production slips into negative territory. Although, historically, there are rare exceptions (e.g., 2015, 1956, 1952) where production dipped without triggering a recession, those are the exception — not the rule.

The national manufacturing slowdown is mirrored in regional payroll data. U.S. manufacturing job growth has been negative year-over-year since October 2023. In Louisville Metro, manufacturing payrolls have declined since early 2024; statewide, Indiana’s manufacturing payrolls have been declining since early 2023.

On the inflation front, recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) came in on the hot side, with core rates showing significant increases from the prior month. Core rates (inflation minus food and energy) for both CPI and PPI exceed 3%.

Despite elevated inflation, labor market concerns are likely to gain more attention over the next several months, prompting a September cut by the Fed and likely two additional cuts the rest of the year. As we look ahead, interest rate cuts could offer needed momentum.

Beneath the Headlines: A Softer U.S. Economy Emerges

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development

Submitted by Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

The Super Bowl of economic indicators – the national jobs report – came out last week, and it was hard to find much to cheer about.

Over the past three months, U.S. payroll growth has averaged just 35,000 jobs per month. That average includes the 73,000 jobs added in July, but even this figure may be revised lower, as May and June saw steep downward revisions totaling more than 250,000 jobs. Excluding the losses during the COVID recession, we have to go back to the Great Recession (2007–2009) to find job growth as weak.

Following the latest employment report, expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged. Markets are now pricing in three cuts before year’s end — September, October, and December. As noted previously, the Fed should have cut in July. Two Fed Governors, Waller and Bowman, dissented at that meeting, but the majority kept rates unchanged.

The household survey, which gives us labor force data, offered no relief. It showed employment down by 260,000 and the number of unemployed up by 221,000. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% to 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate slipped from 62.2% to 62.1%. That decline is the opposite of what’s needed to expand the supply side of the economy — a key part of the administration’s growth strategy, especially to offset the drag from higher tariffs.

The promised boost to manufacturing from the highest tariffs in decades hasn’t appeared in the data. In fact, the numbers suggest the opposite. Manufacturing payrolls fell by 11,000 in July, the third straight monthly decline. Since February, the number of unemployed in manufacturing has climbed from 459,000 to 641,000. Year-over-year manufacturing job growth has been negative since October 2023, and the pace of decline has accelerated this year. This will have implications for Indiana and Kentucky.

The ISM Manufacturing Index, considered to be soft data based on a survey, fell to 48.0 in July, below the expected 49.5 and marking the fifth consecutive month in contraction territory. An ISM reading below 50 signals contraction; above 50 signals expansion. The index briefly topped 50 in January and February — the first time since 2022 — but has been stuck in contraction since. New orders, a component of the overall index, have shown some recovery since March but remain below 50. The latest factory orders report showed a decline of nearly 5% last month.

At first glance, the latest GDP report seems like a bright spot, with Q2 growth at 3.0%. But looking under the hood reveals a different story. Most of the gain came from a sharp drop in imports, which mechanically boosts GDP. This followed a Q1 surge in imports as businesses tried to get ahead of new tariffs. Real final sales to domestic purchasers — a better measure of consumer and business demand — rose just 1.2%, down from 1.9% in Q1 and the weakest since late 2022.

As I’ve written before, the outlook comes down to the consumer and the labor market. Right now, neither is strengthening. The U.S. remains a service-driven economy, but service sector growth is showing signs of slowing as well. While inflation remains on their radar, weaker growth will likely take priority, and softer price increases will follow. The September cut seems all but certain — the question is whether it will be soon enough to avoid a recession.

Thank You for Renewing Your Membership | July 2025

by with No Comment Thank Your for Renewing Your MembershipUncategorized

One Southern Indiana would like to thank the following members for renewing their membership during the month of July 2025.

Quarter Century Club (25 Years or More)Member Since
Lee Building Products1976
Clark County REMC1976
paco manufacturing1976
First Savings Bank1976
Water Tower Square1977
Goodwill of Central & Southern Indiana, Inc.1982
The Marketing Company1985
Chase1988
Southern Indiana Works1988
Commercial Kentucky, Inc.1988
Rasmussen Chiropractic LLC1990
AssuredPartners – Jeffersonville1993
Taco Bell1994
Pro Laminators1995
Kentucky Derby Festival, Inc.1997
  
Ten to 24 Years 
The Stemler Corporation2001
Radiology Associates, Inc.2002
LMH Architecture2002
Health Insurance by Design2003
Harrison County Convention & Visitors Bureau2007
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis2007
Timmel Associates, LLC2009
Security Pros, LLC2009
Fox Insurance & Investments, LLC2012
AccessiCare Elder Home Care2012
Crown Staffing2012
First Financial Bank2014
Elite Printing Resources, LLC2014
HWC Engineering2014
Clark Dietz, Inc.2014
Shoe Sensation #9732015
Taylor Siefker Williams Design Group2015
  
Five to Nine Years 
Church, Langdon, Lopp, Banet Law2016
Bubba’s 332016
River Valley Resources2016
Habitat for Humanity Clark & Floyd Indiana2016
J & C Technologies2016
Kaiser Home Support Services, Inc.2016
River Heritage Conservancy, Inc.2017
Spencer Machine & Tool Co., Inc.2019
Board and You Bistro2020
  
Two to Four Years 
Avant-Garde Turnstiles2021
Silver Creek School Corporation2021
Clark/Floyd System of CARE & Prevent Child Abuse2021
Louisville Bats Baseball Club2021
Guerin Woods2021
HRS Global LLC2022
Riverbend Financial Group LLC2022
Shrewsberry & Associates, LLC2022
EightTwenty2022
Louisville Low Voltage LLC2022
CertaPro Painters of Kentuckiana2022
Ramada Inn2023
University of Louisville Shelby Campus Conference Center2023
Henry Rose Consulting2023
Phoenix Theatres Entertainment2023
Lilys SoftWash LLC2023
Black Diamond Pest Control2023
  
One Year 
Incipio Workforce Solutions 2024
ennu2024
PuroClean of Southern Indiana2024
Ernstberger Orthodontics2024
IEC – Independent Electrical Contractors2024
Lewellyn’s Sealcoating2024

No July Surprise: Inflation and Resilience Will Keep the Fed on Hold

by with No Comment Economic Development

Submitted by Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

A few weeks ago, we noted there was an outside chance of a surprise rate cut in July. A softening labor market and early signs of consumer fatigue created a plausible case for such a move. Even Fed Governors like Christopher Waller publicly acknowledged the justification for a cut. If the Fed wanted to ease, the data offered a reasonable foundation.

But a rate cut isn’t coming in July—because it all comes down to inflation.

Yes, inflation has come down, but not far enough. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed the core inflation rate (which excludes food and energy) ticking up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%. While this was slightly better than expected, the monthly increase accelerated from 0.1% to 0.2%.

At first glance, headline inflation appears to be under control, which might suggest room for a Fed cut. But looking beneath the surface tells a different story.

Take a sampling of goods that rely on imports: prices are beginning to climb meaningfully. Appliance prices rose 1.9% in a single month—equivalent to more than 24% annually. Apparel prices overall were up at a 5% annual rate, but subcategories saw steeper increases. Men’s shirts and sweaters jumped 4.3% in just one month, and women’s dresses experienced a similar spike. Audio and video equipment rose 1.1% monthly, or more than 13% on an annual basis. “Other linens” surged 5.5% monthly, a pace exceeding 30% annually. These price pressures—especially in goods typically sourced through imports—are sending warning signals. So, while a case could be made for a Fed rate cut, July is off the table.

What is keeping headline inflation modest? Energy. A large reduction in energy prices is doing the heavy lifting. Energy commodities, including gasoline and fuel oil, dropped nearly 8% on an annual basis. Excluding energy, the headline inflation rate runs below 2.5%.

Meanwhile, the broader economy continues to show resilience. Despite headwinds, retail sales rebounded in May with a 0.6% increase—triple the expected gain of 0.2%. When excluding gasoline stations, sales climbed 0.7%. While there are weak spots, this data doesn’t point to a consumer collapse that would justify a rate cut.

On the labor front, we’re not witnessing a breakdown. Job openings remain roughly balanced with the number of unemployed, indicating a stabilizing labor market. While job growth has moderated compared to last year, it hasn’t contracted. Private payrolls were soft in the last report, but job gains were impressive after adding government payrolls. Manufacturing remains a weak spot, even with the aid of tariffs.

The more concerning labor market indicator is with unemployment claims. New claims remain historically low—well below levels associated with recessions. However, continuing claims are steadily rising and have not reversed since their low point in mid-2022. This suggests that while employers are slow to lay off workers, employment may be more difficult for those who lose their jobs.

In our last Eye on the Economy, we discussed emerging weaknesses beneath the surface of a record-breaking stock market. The warning signs are still present. But for now, the economy continues to chug along—just enough to escape a July rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Economic Update | Markets Are Up, But Is the Economy?

by with No Comment 1si NewsEconomic Development

Submitted by
Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

Back in July 2000, the S&P 500 reached what was then an all-time high. Less than a year later, the economy slipped into a mild recession. While the downturn wasn’t severe, it took nearly seven years for the S&P 500 to recover. The NASDAQ took even longer—almost 15 years—to regain the ground lost during what became known as the “dotcom” recession.

Then, in late 2007, the S&P 500 again hit a peak—just before the Great Recession, the most significant economic contraction since the Great Depression. During the 2010s, markets steadily climbed with periodic corrections. In February 2020, the S&P was once again at record highs, before the COVID-19 shock led to one of the sharpest recessions in history. Thanks to extraordinary federal stimulus and Federal Reserve intervention, markets quickly rebounded and resumed their upward trajectory.

Fast forward to 2025, and the market is again at an all-time high—this time following a sharp pullback associated with “Liberation Day” and the announcement of sweeping tariffs. After several delays, the past week saw a wave of tariff reinstatements on several key trading partners at levels few anticipated.

While markets may be surging, that shouldn’t be mistaken for economic strength. History shows that market peaks have often preceded downturns. In 2001 and 2007, economic weakness followed record highs.  Are we on the verge of repeating 2001 and 2007?

At this year’s Mid-Year Outlook, I projected that the economy would avoid a full recession but likely experience a slowdown. With the latest trade developments, the possibility of a more significant deceleration will grow.

The most recent employment report showed stronger-than-expected job growth—147,000 new jobs—but a closer look reveals that nearly half of those were in state and local government. Private sector growth was a modest 74,000 jobs, well below the expected 120,000. Manufacturing, one of the intended beneficiaries of tariffs, lost another 7,000 jobs.

Meanwhile, continuing unemployment claims are gradually rising, suggesting that displaced workers are taking longer to find new employment. In June, average weekly hours declined, along with average hourly earnings—indicators of a softening labor market.

On the consumer front, spending on both goods and services declined. Foot traffic, while not necessarily the same as sales data, offers more timely insight. Across Louisville Metro, restaurant visits are down 15% from last year. Bars, furniture stores, and department stores also saw declines, though home improvement shows a slight increase.

Are these local trends early signs of a broader national pullback in consumer spending? Time will tell.  Tariff uncertainty, and market volatility are not the conditions businesses need to make long-term investments. The cracks in both consumer and labor markets could open wider.

ENCON Repeats as Fastest-Growing Rental Team in the United States

by with No Comment Member News
Jeffersonville, IN — June 23, 2025 —  For the second year in a row, ENCON Equipment has been named the fastest-growing equipment rental company in the United States, topping Rental Management’s 2025 Market Movers list with an extraordinary 535% revenue-producing growth. This back-to-back honor cements ENCON’s reputation as a standout in the rental industry.
 
Breakout Year Continues with Debut on RER 100 List
Adding to its impressive momentum, ENCON has also earned a spot on the Rental Equipment Register’s (RER) prestigious 2025 Top 100 list—making its debut at No. 99 among the largest equipment rental firms in North America, with total annual sales of $12.7 million.
 
While the Market Movers list recognizes the fastest-growing companies based on percentage growth in rental revenue, the RER 100 highlights the largest rental companies in North America, ranked by total annual rental volume. ENCON’s inclusion on both lists underscores a rare combination of rapid growth and expanding market presence—proof that the company is scaling up while maintaining speed.
 
ENCON serves contractors across Kentucky, metro Louisville, and Southern Indiana through three regional hubs located in Nicholasville, KY; Somerset, KY; and Jeffersonville, IN. The company’s focus on compact and mid-sized machinery has made it a trusted rental partner across the region.
 
“Our team is driven by the belief that the right equipment can make a powerful impact,” said Jordan Mitchell, president of ENCON. “These awards say a lot about how hard our people work and how much our customers believe in us.”
 
Published annually, the Market Movers list tracks year-over-year growth, while the RER 100 captures the overall industry footprint. To make both lists in just two years—following a change in ownership—is a major milestone in ENCON’s journey to becoming a national leader in equipment rental.
 
To learn more, visit www.enconequipment.com.
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Media Contact:
Angie Gimmel
Angie@enconequipment.com
(502) 648-9283