Economic Update | The 100% Recession Delayed Again

submitted by
Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Interim Executive Vice Chancellor for Academic Affairs, Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

Last year saw close to unanimity regarding the 2023 outlook and a chance of a recession.     In fact, the 2023 recession may have been one of the most predicted recessions.   The 100% chance of a recession has yet to arrive, and with last Friday’s labor report, the recession that everyone expected will be delayed once again.

The consensus estimate for job gains was around 180,000 and the report showed an addition of 253,000.   Even a gain of 180,000 would be considered very strong and the reported result exceeded that.   The largest job changes occurred in professional and business services (+43,000), health care (+40,000) and leisure and hospitality (+31,000).  Manufacturing added 11,000 jobs, even with the latest ISM report on manufacturing showing contraction in the  sector.  The unemployment rate remained little changed at 3.4% and there was no change to labor force participation. Perhaps the worst part of the report was about the revision of March payrolls.    March was revised downward, from 236,000 to 165,000.

This Wednesday brings the Consumer Price Index release.   The report is expected to show additional moderation in inflation, but core inflation (inflation minus the cost of food and energy) may be sticky, one of the driving factors behind the last interest rate increase of 25 basis points.  The preferred Federal Reserve indicator on inflation, the PCE Deflator, showed additional deceleration, but the numbers came in a little higher than expected.  Despite the Fed concerns about inflation and guidance that shows the continued maintenance of higher rates, markets are expecting the Fed to begin cutting rates later this year.  This is driven by the market view of an expected recession or slowdown later in the year.

Unemployment claims continue to run at levels that do not coincide with a recession.   The labor market is showing some signs of slowing or softening, but with new claims running at 242,000, more layoffs need to occur before we get close to the declaration of a recession.  Job openings plummeted last week with the release of the JOLTS report but remained higher than the number of unemployed.  The latest report showed that approximately 1,7 jobs exist per unemployed person.

Locally, the metro area is approaching 700,000 non-farm payrolls.  The latest metro employment report (subject to subsequent revisions) showed that metro area payrolls are at the highest in history, at 689,000.  This is about 9,000 higher than the level that existed just prior to the pandemic.   The unemployment rate for the metro region is at 3.1%, among the lowest in the past 30 years.

The most anticipated recession has yet to arrive.   Unless there is a dramatic fall in job changes, a recession this year is getting increasingly unlikely.   There are risks to the economy, and I continue to believe that a slowdown is coming.   A slowing economy may still escape an official recession, however, at least for this year.

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Advocacy Update | 04.26.23

Advocacy-Update-Email-Header2Welcome to the 1si Advocacy Update!  Every Wednesday while the General Assembly is in session, you will receive an update of 1si’s advocacy efforts. If you missed any of our previous updates from this session, please click here. 

 The Indiana General Assembly is nearing the end of session as the Sine Die date is April 29. Conference Committees started last week and will wrap over this week and the next week.  

 Bills that passed both chambers without amendments go straight to the Governor for consideration. However, bills that were amended in the other chamber will return to their chamber of origin. Bill authors have the option to concur or approve the amended bill, which would then move to the governor’s desk following an affirmative vote from the chamber of origin.  

 Bill authors also have the option to dissent, or disagree, which sends the bill to a conference committee. This process includes representatives from each Chamber working to resolve differences within approved bills from each chamber. If a compromise is reached, the final version must be approved by both chambers before heading to the Governor’s desk for signature.  

Key dates:  

  • February 27 – last day for 3rd reading of House bills in House 
  • February 28 – last day for 3rd reading of Senate bills in Senate 
  • April 17 – last day for 3rd reading of Senate bills in House 
  • April 18 – last day for 3rd reading of House bills in Senate 
  • April 19-27 – Conference Committees 
  • April 27 – Anticipated Final Day of Session 
  • April 29 – Statutory Sine Die 

 As a reminder, our 2023 Call to Action includes talent attraction and retention which has four main concerns: Quality of Place, Housing Growth, Availability of Childcare, and Enhance Healthy Lifestyles.  

 Bills on which 1si is taking a position (Updates as of Tuesday morning): 

 Supporting: 

  • HB 1005: Establishes the residential housing infrastructure assistance program and residential housing infrastructure assistance revolving fund. 
    • Passed House 91-6. 
    • Passed Senate 32-16. 
    • House concurred – Sent to Governor for signature 

1si’s second Call to Action is to “develop new and enhanced tools to build and maintain infrastructure in support of housing growth.” 1si is in support as this bill provides a tool for local communities to meet the needs of housing shortages and prepare for future housing growth.  

  •  HB 1160: Creates funding for workforce training program and fund.   
    • Passed House 92-0.   
    • Passed Senate 49-0.  
    • House dissented – Assigned to Conference Committee 

 One of 1si’s 2023 Priorities is “Meeting Workforce Demands.” 1si is in support as this bill would increase access to and fund workforce training and education programs for career support. As workforce shortages are a need for our businesses in Southern Indiana and throughout the State, this bill provides a tool to help booster the pipeline of potential individuals to be trained to enter or reenter the workforce.  

  •  SB 414: Provides alternative solutions to residential onsite sewage system fails. 
    • Passed Senate 44-5. 
    • Passed House 62-31. 
    • Senate dissented – Assigned to Conference Committee 

 1si’s second Call to Action is to “develop new and enhanced tools to build and maintain infrastructure in support of housing growth.” 1si is in support as this bill would establish an alternative for homeowners needing to replace and upgrade their septic systems so that their houses can remain viable. This bill provides homeowners with a tool to build and maintain infrastructure to support existing homes that may be deemed unlivable without these upgrades. 

  •  SB 35: Requires students to take a financial literacy course.  
    • Passed Senate 47-2.  
    • Passed House 88-1.  
    • Senate concurred – Sent to Governor for signature 

 One of 1si’s Governing Principles is “Career-Ready Workforce and Educational Initiatives.” 1si is in support as this bill requires an individual to successfully complete a personal financial responsibility course before the individual may graduate and creates requirements for content that must be covered in a personal financial responsibility course. 

  •  HB 1046: Provides that a military base reuse authority (such as River Ridge) is qualified to receive funds for an eligible project from the local road and bridge matching grant fund. 
    • Passed House 90-3. 
    • Passed Senate 37-13. 
    • House dissented – Assigned to Conference Committee 

 One of 1si’s 2023 Priorities is “Infrastructure and Housing.” “This is the time to assist communities in building and maintaining roads and bridges…which are essential economic growth strategies for Southern Indiana.” 1si is in support as this bill would allow River Ridge and other military base reuse authorities to apply for a grant fund to support road or bridge projects.  

  •  HB 1449: Amends the twenty-first-century scholars program eligibility requirements for certain students and auto enrolls those students but students may opt-out. 
    • Passed House 92-1.  
    • Passed Senate 48-0.  
    • House concurred – Sent to Governor for signature 

 One of 1si’s Governing Principles is “Career-Ready Workforce and Educational Initiatives.” 1si is in support as this bill provides a tool for low-income students to increase their opportunity for attainment of bachelor’s and associate degrees. The twenty-first-century scholar program provides a scholarship for low-income students to attend a State Institution and maintain a “good student” status academically.  

  •  SB 202: Creates a taskforce to study the need for various housing matters. 
    • Passed Senate 37-9.  
    • In House Rules and Legislative Procedures Committee.  
    • Died in House. 

 1si’s second Call to Action is to “develop new and enhanced tools to build and maintain infrastructure in support of housing growth.” 1si is in support as this bill urges a housing study be completed to address the needs of quality housing options. Having a variety of quality housing is vital to our communities’ and businesses’ abilities to attract talent.  

 Opposing: 

  • HB 1278: Prohibits the Indiana economic development corporation, any other public authority, or any party negotiating on behalf of any of those entities (like 1si) from entering into a non-disclosure agreement designed to keep the details of the negotiation private until approval by a public body is warranted. 
    • Died in House.  

 One of 1si’s Governing Principles is “Sustainable Economic Growth” as 1si serves as the Lead Economic Development Organization for Clark, Floyd, and Scott Counties. 1si is in opposition as this bill prohibits the State, or any party negotiating on behalf of any public authority for economic development proposes from entering into nondisclosure agreements. This bill would eliminate a tool that is used frequently in economic development to help meet the needs of different businesses. If passed, this would give Indiana a disadvantage to surrounding States that use nondisclosure agreements.  

 Monitoring: 

  • HB 1001: Appropriates the State budget. 
    • Passed House 66-29. 
    • Positive Budget Forecast released on April 19. 
    • Passed Senate 40-10.  
    • House dissented – Assigned to Conference Committee. 
  • SB 317: Provides that a political subdivision may make advance payments to contractors to enable the contractors to purchase materials needed for a public works project of the political subdivision. 
    • Passed Senate 44-0. 
    • Passed House 89-1. 
    • Senate dissented – Assigned to Conference Committee 
  • HB 1209: Allows the Indiana Destination Development Corporation to establish a foundation. 
    • Passed House 95-1. 
    • Passed Senate 49-0. 
    • House concurred – sent to Governor. 
    • Governor signed into law on 4/20/23. 
  • SB 20: Allows a city/town to designate an outdoor location as a refreshment area with approval of the alcohol and tobacco commission.  
    • Passed Senate 39-10. 
    • Passed House 79-19. 
    • Senate dissented – sent to Conference Committee 
  • SB 37 / HB1499: Sunsets any Food and Beverage Taxes except for Marion County, the surrounding Indianapolis counties, and Orange County (French Lick). Creates new requirements for future Food and Beverage Taxes.  
    • SB 37 Passed Senate 50-0. 
    • HB 1499 Passed House 94-1. 
    • Bills merged and assigned to Conference Committee 
  • SB 390: Allows municipalities to apply to become commercial solar and wind energy ready communities.  
    • Passed Senate 36-12. 
    • Passed House 86-8.  
    • Senate concurred – sent to Governor  
    • Governor signed into Public Law 50 on 4/20/23 
  • HB 1591: Expands access to childcare and pre-kindergarten programs.  
    • Passed House 94-0. 
    • Passed Senate 45-5. 
    • House dissented – Assigned to Conference Committee 
  • SB 419: Creates state tax exempts and credits.  
    • Passed Senate 49-0.  
    • Passed House 96-2. 
    • Senate dissented – Assigned to Conference Committee 
      • Amendments that have changed the bill from its original form focused on local TIF money and local Redevelopment Commissions.  

 We will keep you updated on our actions related to the 2023 Indiana Legislative Session, but for more information on our Advocacy Agenda, please visit www.1si.org/advocacy. 

Economic Update | Fed Policy and Local Housing Activity

submitted by
Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Interim Executive Vice Chancellor for Academic Affairs, Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

One could argue that housing has perhaps been most impacted by current Federal Reserve monetary policy. With inflation at a forty-year high, the Fed finally began lifting the target Fed Funds rate, with the goal of suppressing demand and thus slowing down the rate of inflationary growth.  Fed policy impacts mortgage rates, which bottomed out in early January 2021 at 2.74% and peaked in late 2022 at 6.81%.

The origins of the current housing market take us back to early 2020.  The Covid pandemic threatened economic collapse, along with high levels of uncertainty.   This was not the same as the Great Financial Crisis or prior recessions.  There was not really a playbook.   The Fed responded with a drop in the Fed Funds target rate from 1.75% in March 2020 to 1.25%.  The rate would be lowered again to .25% by the end of the month.

In early 2020, the 30-year mortgage rate was approximately 3.6%.   Looser monetary policy drove rates down to 2.8% almost a year later.   Record low mortgage rates, along with significant government stimulus, combined to ignite home prices. In early 2020, the median selling price for existing homes, using National Association of Realtors data, was $272,800.   Home prices peaked in June 2022 at a whopping $420,900!

As the old expression goes, hindsight is 20-20, and there is never a shortage of armchair quarterbacks.   But any rational economic thinker can only wonder how the Fed could manage to make such a glaring policy error.     In early 2020, the target Fed Funds rate was reduced to almost 0, and with the economic shock that nation’s economy was experiencing, you could make the case that this was necessary.    For the next 18 months, the policy decisions are nothing less than bewildering.  The target Fed Funds rate of  .25% was held at that level all the way until March 2022.   In early 2020, inflation, as measured by the CPI, was less than 1%.  No doubt, the Fed feared the onset of deflation, a crippling phenomenon that devastates profits and magnifies the impact of any leverage.   The looser monetary policy was very justified during this early phase of the pandemic.

After hitting bottom around May 2020, inflation then started to creep up again.  Recall the supply chain issues and the gargantuan government stimulus that stoked demand.    A year later, the CPI would be running at almost 5% inflation.    Inflation was running hot, but the Fed refused to budge on the Fed Funds rate.   In May 2021, the Fed Funds rate was still at .25%.   By the end of 2021, inflation would be running at 7.2%.  The Fed Funds rate was still at .25%.    Inflation peaked  June 2022 at 8.93%, but the Fed did not increase the target Fed Funds rate until May 2022, a month before hitting the peak in inflation.

We can see the impacts of these national decisions on local housing, although the impact has not been as severe as the national landscape.   Over the first quarter of 2023, national existing home sales have dropped 38% compared to the first quarter of 2022.  In Clark and Floyd county, home sales have only declined by 14.2% and 6.8% respectively.   Home prices are on the decline nationally, as mortgage rate increases have snuffed out demand, and owners of low mortgages are reluctant to sell, thus impacting the supply of homes.   The National Association of Realtor’s price data show that the average price of existing home sales is about flat from first quarter 2022 to the first quarter of 2023.     This year- over-year comparison does not capture the June 2022 peak of $420,000.   Prices have fallen fast since June but remain flat when compared to early 2022. In Clark and Floyd, home prices are up 5.7% and 15% respectively.   Despite higher mortgage rates, local home prices remain in positive territory, likely due to the supply of homes available for sale.   Homes available for sale have increased, with the months supply of inventory increasing to 1.6 and 1.4 for Clark and Floyd respectively.   This is up from 1.0 and .8 from a year ago, but still at very low levels.

Locally, we do see the impact of federal policy on building permits, having a definite impact on activity.   Clark County has always been the leader in building permit activity, given its role as the most populous county among the five Southern Indiana metro counites.   In 2021, Clark County generated 1,626 building permits, with 716 of that level in 5+ units multi-family housing.   In 2022, permit activity declined to 761, with only 154 in 5+ unit multi-family structures.    So, building permits were cut by more than half in just a year.  In Floyd County, building permits increased from 248 to 260, with multi-family units driving the increase from 2021 to 2022.

The Fed may be approaching the last rate increase at its next meeting in May.  There is an outside chance that there will be a pause, but an increase of 25 basis points is likely.    The rate of inflation growth is falling, with the last CPI headline number running at 5%.    After the pause in rates, the Fed will hold for some time, keeping mortgage rates elevated.    Some participants are pricing Fed rate declines later this year, but that is not certain.    As the economy slows, this will push interest rates down, bringing further relief to mortgage rates.

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Advocacy Update 04.19.23

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Welcome to the 1si Advocacy Update!  Every Wednesday while the General Assembly is in session, you will receive an update of 1si’s advocacy efforts. If you missed any of our previous updates from this session, please click here.

The general assembly is starting to reach some important milestones as the Sine Die date is April 29. This week, we have reached the 3rd reading deadlines for both the House and Senate. Conference Committees also start this week and will conclude no later than April 27. As you can see below, this session has flown by rather quickly!

Key dates:

·        February 27 – last day for 3rd reading of House bills in House

·        February 28 – last day for 3rd reading of Senate bills in Senate

·        April 17 – last day for 3rd reading of Senate bills in House

·        April 18 – last day for 3rd reading of House bills in Senate

·        April 19-27 – Conference Committees

·        April 27 – Anticipated Final Day of Session

·        April 29 – Statutory Sine Die

As a reminder, our 2023 Call to Action includes talent attraction and retention which has four main concerns: Quality of Place, Housing Growth, Availability of Childcare, and Enhance Healthy Lifestyles.

Bills on which 1si is taking a position:

Supporting:

·        HB 1005: Establishes the residential housing infrastructure assistance program and residential housing infrastructure assistance revolving fund.

o   Passed House 91-6.

o   Passed Senate 32-16.

1si’s second Call to Action is to “develop new and enhanced tools to build and maintain infrastructure in support of housing growth.” 1si is in support as this bill provides a tool for local communities to meet the needs of housing shortages and prepare for future housing growth.

·        HB 1160: Creates funding for workforce training program and fund.

o   Passed House 92-0.

o   Hearing on Senate Floor this week.

One of 1si’s 2023 Priorities is “Meeting Workforce Demands.” 1si is in support as this bill would increase access to and fund workforce training and education programs for career support. As workforce shortages are a need for our businesses in Southern Indiana and throughout the State, this bill provides a tool to help booster the pipeline of potential individuals to be trained to enter or reenter the workforce.

·        SB 414: Provides alternatives solutions to residential onsite sewage system fails.

o   Passed Senate 44-5.

o   Passed House 62-31.

1si’s second Call to Action is to “develop new and enhanced tools to build and maintain infrastructure in support of housing growth.” 1si is in support as this bill would establish an alternative for homeowners needing to replace and upgrade their septic systems so that their houses can remain viable. This bill provides homeowners with a tool to build and maintain infrastructure to support existing homes that may be deemed unlivable without these upgrades.

·        SB 35: Requires students to take a financial literacy course.

o   Passed Senate 47-2.

o   Passed House 88-1.

One of 1si’s Governing Principles is “Career-Ready Workforce and Educational Initiatives.” 1si is in support as this bill requires an individual to successfully complete a personal financial responsibility course before the individual may graduate and creates requirements for content that must be covered in a personal financial responsibility course.

·        HB 1046: Provides that a military base reuse authority (such as River Ridge) is qualified to receive funds for an eligible project from the local road and bridge matching grant fund.

o   Passed House 90-3.

o   Third reading on Senate Floor this week.

One of 1si’s 2023 Priorities is “Infrastructure and Housing.” “This is the time to assist communities in building and maintaining roads and bridges…which are essential economic growth strategies for Southern Indiana.” 1si is in support as this bill would allow River Ridge and other military base reuse authorities to apply for a grant fund to support road or bridge projects.

·        HB 1449: Amends the twenty-first century scholars program eligibility requirements for certain students and auto enrolls those students but students may opt-out.

o   Passed House 92-1.

o   Passed Senate 48-0.

One of 1si’s Governing Principles is “Career-Ready Workforce and Educational Initiatives.” 1si is in support as this bill provides a tool for low-income students to increase their opportunity for attainment of bachelor’s and associate degrees. The twenty-first century scholar program provides a scholarship for low-income students to attend a State Institution and maintain a “good student” status academically.

·        SB 202: Creates a taskforce to study the need for various housing matters.

o   Passed Senate 37-9.

o   Died.

1si’s second Call to Action is to “develop new and enhanced tools to build and maintain infrastructure in support of housing growth.” 1si is in support as this bill urges a housing study be completed to address the needs of quality housing options. Having a variety of quality housing is vital to our communities’ and businesses’ abilities to attract talent.

Opposing:

·        HB 1278: Prohibits the Indiana economic development corporation, any other public authority, or any party negotiating on behalf of any of those entities (like 1si) from entering into a non-disclosure agreement designed to keep the details of the negotiation private until approval by a public body is warranted.

o   Died in House.

One of 1si’s Governing Principles is “Sustainable Economic Growth” as 1si serves as the Lead Economic Development Organization for Clark, Floyd, and Scott Counties. 1si is in opposition as this bill prohibits the State, or any party negotiating on behalf of any public authority for economic development proposes from entering into nondisclosure agreements. This bill would eliminate a tool that is used frequently in economic development to help meet the needs of different businesses. If passed, this would give Indiana a disadvantage to surrounding States that use nondisclosure agreements.

Monitoring:

  • HB 1001: Appropriates the State budget.

o   Passed House 66-29.

o   Third reading on Senate Floor this week.

o   The Budget Forecast will be released on April 19.

  • SB 317: Provides that a political subdivision may make advance payments to contractors to enable the contractors to purchase materials needed for a public works project of the political subdivision.

o   Passed Senate 44-0.

o   Passed House 89-1.

  • HB 1209: Allows the Indiana Destination Development Corporation to establish a foundation.

o   Passed House 95-1.

o   Passed Senate 49-0.

  • SB 20: Allows a city/town to designate an outdoor location as a refreshment area with approval of the alcohol and tobacco commission.

o   Passed Senate 39-10.

o   Passed House 79-19.

  • SB 37: Sunsets any Food and Beverage Taxes except for Marion County, the surrounding Indianapolis counties, and Orange County (French Lick). Creates new requirements for future Food and Beverage Taxes.

o   Passed Senate 50-0.

o   Died.

·        Language being added to HB 1499.

  • SB 390: Allows municipalities to apply to become commercial solar and wind energy-ready communities.

o   Passed Senate 36-12.

o   Passed House 86-8.

  • HB 1591: Expands access to childcare and pre-kindergarten programs.

o   Passed House 94-0.

o   Third reading on Senate Floor this week.

  • SB 419: Creates state tax exempts and credits.

o   Passed Senate 49-0.

o   Passed House 96-2.

·        Amendments that have changed the bill from its original form focused on local TIF money and local Redevelopment Commissions.

We will keep you updated on our actions related to the 2023 Indiana Legislative Session, but for more information on our Advocacy Agenda, please visit www.1si.org/advocacy.

Stites & Harbison Hires Tracey Moore as the Firm’s Director of Recruiting and Diversity Initiatives

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (April 17, 2023)—Stites & Harbison, PLLC welcomes Tracey L. Moore as the firm’s Director of Recruitment and Diversity Initiatives. She will be based in the Louisville, Ky., office.

Moore will oversee all aspects of recruiting across the firm’s 11 offices. She is charged with developing best practices to identify, attract and retain the most qualified candidates with a broad range of experience levels.

Additionally, hiring Moore is a key component to Stites & Harbison’s ongoing commitment to support, grow and improve diversity efforts across the firm’s six-state footprint. She will evaluate existing practices and assist firm leadership in establishing benchmarks and best practices.

“As recruiting top legal talent becomes more competitive across the country, hiring Tracey and utilizing her skillset to Stites & Harbison’s advantage will be paramount,” stated firm Chair, Marjorie A. Farris. “Part of the recruiting process is ensuring that we are implementing processes that increase the representation of underrepresented lawyers. Tracey will ensure that the firm’s Diversity Action Plan which was created in 2003 remains at the forefront of our efforts to build a more diverse and inclusive firm.”

Moore has more than 14 years of legal and recruiting industry experience. During her career, she has worked with Fortune 500 companies and Am Law 200 law firms.

About Stites & Harbison

Stites & Harbison, PLLC is a nationally recognized, full-service law firm. With 11 offices across six states — Kentucky, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia — the firm represents clients across the United States and internationally. Tracing its origins to 1832, Stites & Harbison is known as a preeminent firm managing sophisticated transactions, challenging litigation and complex regulatory matters on a daily basis. For more information, visit www.stites.com.

Nonprofit Spotlight | New Life International

This special feature showcases 1si’s nonprofit members. Spotlighting members from across the community, 1si’s Nonprofit Member Spotlight reflects the variety of our membership. If you would like to be featured in this section, please email Becky Ellenburg.

Company Name:     New Life International

Address:       6764 S. Bloomington Trail

City/State/Zip:         Underwood, IN 47177

Business Phone:     812-752-7474

Website:       waterfortheworld.org

Contact Person:      Mark DiStasi, Director of Mission Advancement

Contact Email:   mark.distasi@waterfortheworld.com

 

Please use 300 words or less to describe your agency and your impact in the community.

Since 1998, New Life International, Inc.’s mission has been to provide safe water and deliver the Gospel of Jesus Christ throughout the world. A very durable, yet cost-effective and simple-to-operate, water purifier was invented by Duvon McGuire that creates chlorine to disinfect water. One purifier has the capability of serving a school, orphanage, clinic, hospital or even an entire community.  In 2020, NLI began to expand its solutions by launching a cutting-edge Innovation Center that introduced automated water purification as well as wound healing, hand sanitation, and surface disinfection solutions.

We envision a world where all people have access to solutions that enhance physical and spiritual well-being.  To that end, our technology has been deployed to over 80 countries globally, including more than 4,000 of our flagship water purification systems. Missionaries, pastors, and church leaders who know of a need for our solutions come to our campus in Underwood, Indiana, for a free, one-day training on proper placement and installation. It is through these relationships that New Life International is able to bring hope and healing to the uttermost parts of the world.

Whether you’re currently on the mission field or your present stage of life doesn’t allow you to go on mission, you can play a part in making a difference in communities around the world.

Agency Mission Statement or Description:

Bringing hope and healing to a world in need through innovative technology and the Gospel of Jesus Christ.

Year established: 1998

Counties/regions serviced: Scott

Focus areas: International

Impact on community: Added two facilities in Scottsburg in 2022

Volunteer Opportunities:

We are a ministry dependent upon volunteers, just like you or your group.

Portions of the water purifier assembly work are performed by volunteers.

How 1si members can help your organization:

Important tasks often needed through our volunteers include community outreach, grounds maintenance, newsletter preparation, data entry, fundraising, grant writing, and inventory.

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Advocacy Update | 04.12.23

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Welcome to the 1si Advocacy Update!  Every Wednesday while the General Assembly is in session, you will receive an update of 1si’s advocacy efforts. If you missed any of our previous updates from this session, please click here. 

 The general assembly is starting to reach some important milestones as the Sine Die date is April 29. The Weekly Advocacy Update will only have five to six more weeks of updates as we will follow bills that are signed into law and give a recap on the 1si efforts. Thank you to our avid readers, we appreciate your support! It is important to note that even outside of the session, there may be an advocacy update on future advocacy events.  

 As a reminder, our 2023 Call to Action includes talent attraction and retention which has four main concerns: Quality of Place, Housing Growth, Availability of Childcare, and Enhance Healthy Lifestyles.  

 Our Advocacy Leadership Team has acted on two bills this week with both being supported! As a reminder, our Advocacy Leadership Team meets every Monday morning to discuss any updates on bills from week to week. It is important to note that for any bill to have action taken, the Advocacy Leadership Team must come to a unanimous decision.  

 New to Support: 

  • HB 1449: Amends the twenty-first-century scholars’ program eligibility requirements for certain students and auto enrolls those students but students may opt out. 
  • Passed House 92-1.  
  • Passed committees and is headed to Senate Floor.  

One of 1si’s Governing Principles is “Career-Ready Workforce and Educational Initiatives.” 1si is in support as this bill provides a tool for low-income students to increase their opportunity for attainment of bachelors and associate degrees. The twenty-first-century scholar program provides a scholarship for low-income students to attend a State Institution and maintain a “good student” status academically.  

 SB 202: Creates a taskforce to study the need for various housing matters. 

  • Passed Senate 37-9.  
  • In House Rules and Legislative Procedures Committee.  

1si’s second Call to Action is to “develop new and enhanced tools to build and maintain infrastructure in support of housing growth.” 1si is in support as this bill urges a housing study be completed to address the need of quality housing options. Having a variety of quality housing is vital to our communities’ and businesses’ abilities to attract talent.  

 Bills on which 1si is taking a position: 

 Supporting: 

  • HB 1005: Establishes the residential housing infrastructure assistance program and residential housing infrastructure assistance revolving fund. 
  • Passed House 91-6. 
  • Passed Senate 32-16. 

1si’s second Call to Action is to “develop new and enhanced tools to build and maintain infrastructure in support of housing growth.” 1si is in support as this bill provides a tool for local communities to meet the needs of housing shortages and prepare for future housing growth.  

 HB 1160: Creates funding for workforce training program and fund.   

  • Passed House 92-0.   
  • Hearing on Senate Floor this week.  

One of 1si’s 2023 Priorities is “Meeting Workforce Demands.” 1si is in support as this bill would increase access to and fund workforce training and education programs for career support. As workforce shortages are a need for our businesses in Southern Indiana and throughout the State, this bill provides a tool to help boost the pipeline of potential individuals to be trained to enter or reenter the workforce.  

 SB 414: Provides alternative solutions to residential onsite sewage system fails. 

  • Passed Senate 44-5. 
  • Passed House 62-31. 

1si’s second Call to Action is to “develop new and enhanced tools to build and maintain infrastructure in support of housing growth.” 1si is in support as this bill would establish an alternative for homeowners needing to replace and upgrade their septic systems so that their houses can remain viable. This bill provides homeowners with a tool to build and maintain infrastructure to support existing homes that may be deemed unlivable without these upgrades. 

 SB 35: Requires students to take a financial literacy course.  

  • Passed Senate 47-2.  
  • Passed House 88-1.  

One of 1si’s Governing Principles is “Career-Ready Workforce and Educational Initiatives.” 1si is in support as this bill requires an individual to successfully complete a personal financial responsibility course before the individual may graduate and creates requirements for content that must be covered in a personal financial responsibility course. 

 HB 1046: Provides that a military base reuse authority (such as River Ridge) is qualified to receive funds for an eligible project from the local road and bridge matching grant fund. 

  • Passed House 90-3. 
  • Hearing on Senate Floor this week.  

One of 1si’s 2023 Priorities is “Infrastructure and Housing.” “This is the time to assist communities in building and maintaining roads and bridges…which are essential economic growth strategies for Southern Indiana.” 1si is in support as this bill would allow River Ridge and other military base reuse authorities to apply for a grant fund to support road or bridge projects.  

 Opposing: 

  • HB 1278: Prohibits the Indiana economic development corporation, any other public authority, or any party negotiating on behalf of any of those entities (like 1si) from entering into a non-disclosure agreement designed to keep the details of the negotiation private until approval by a public body is warranted. 
  • Died in House.  

One of 1si’s Governing Principles is “Sustainable Economic Growth” as 1si serves as the Lead Economic Development Organization for Clark, Floyd, and Scott Counties. 1si is in opposition as this bill prohibits the State, or any party negotiating on behalf of any public authority for economic development proposes from entering into nondisclosure agreements. This bill would eliminate a tool that is used frequently in economic development to help meet the needs of different businesses. If passed, this would give Indiana a disadvantage to surrounding States that use nondisclosure agreements.  

 Monitoring: 

  • HB 1001: Appropriates the State budget. 
  • Passed House 66-29. 
  • In Senate Appropriations Committee.  
  • The Budget Forecast will be released on April 19.  
  • SB 317: Provides that a political subdivision may make advance payments to contractors to enable the contractors to purchase materials needed for a public works project of the political subdivision. 
  • Passed Senate 44-0. 
  • Passed House 89-1. 
  • HB 1209: Allows the Indiana Destination Development Corporation to establish a foundation. 
  • Passed House 95-1. 
  • Passed Senate 49-0. 
  • SB 20: Allows a city/town to designate an outdoor location as a refreshment area with approval of the alcohol and tobacco commission.  
  • Passed Senate 39-10. 
  • Hearing on House Floor this week.  
  • SB 37: Sunsets any Food and Beverage Taxes except for Marion County, the surrounding Indianapolis counties, and Orange County (French Lick). Creates new requirements for future Food and Beverage Taxes.  
  • Passed Senate 50-0. 
  • In House Ways and Means Committee.  
  • SB 390: Allows municipalities to apply to become commercial solar and wind energy-ready communities.  
  • Passed Senate 36-12. 
  • Passed House 86-8.  
  • HB 1591: Expands access to childcare and pre-kindergarten programs.  
  • Passed House 94-0. 
  • Hearing on Senate Floor this week.  
  • SB 419: Creates state tax exempts and credits.  
  • Passed Senate 49-0.  
  • Hearing on House Floor this week.  
  • Amendments that have changed the bill from its original form focused on local TIF money and local Redevelopment Commissions.  

We will keep you updated on our actions related to the 2023 Indiana Legislative Session, but for more information on our Advocacy Agenda, please visit www.1si.org/advocacy.

Economic Update | Setting Up for a Fed Pause

submitted by
Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Interim Executive Vice Chancellor for Academic Affairs, Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast

The past two weeks saw some key data releases, and the trend pointed in the direction of a slowing economy.  This is getting us closer to a Fed rate pause, the first step in a reversal of rate hikes.

The national payroll report on Friday showed the economy adding 236,000 jobs in March.   The 236,000 number was in line with expectations, coming in just under the consensus estimate of 240,000.   The more revealing number was with private payrolls, slowing to 189,000. This is the smallest positive gain in private payrolls since early 2020.    The data released showed that the average work week declined to 34.4 hours, from 34.5 the previous month.

One big positive with the report was the jump in the labor force.  The nation’s labor force climbed almost 500,000 from the previous month, and the labor force participation rate increased to 62.6%.  An expanding labor force will help apply headwinds to average hourly wages.  The report did show that average hourly earnings increased by 4.2% on the year, and this was slightly less than expected. This is a number the Fed will closely monitor. A deceleration in average hourly earnings will give the Fed some of the justification it needs to pause interest rate hikes.

National manufacturing continues to point to a slowing economy. The payrolls report showed that manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs nationally, and the latest ISM report showed additional deceleration.  The ISM Index slowed to 46.3, down from 47.7 the previous month.  A number under 50 points to contraction, and above 50 points to expansion in manufacturing. The ISM Index hit 50 back in October 2022, and has been in negative territory since.  A reading of 46.3 is not necessarily consistent with a recession, however.  There have been readings in that vicinity absent a declared recession. But if the declining trend continues, this will no doubt put us closer to the start of a recession.

We have been expecting a slowdown on the goods side of the economy for quite some time.   The nation saw a surge in goods spending during the pandemic and the year following.    At some point, we need to see a slowing of goods spending, and that is exactly what has occurred. While we have been expecting slower growth in goods spending, spending on services has been increasing.  The ISM Services Index showed a big surprise, however.   The index came in at 51.2, much lower than the consensus estimate of 54.5, and a noticeable decline from 55.1 the prior month.  The services economy is still expanding, but the last report showed that the service economy may be reaching a stall, in line with the overall slowing of the economy.

A couple of other labor market reports point to slower growth. Unemployment claims, which have been running consistently under 200,000 for the week, surged to 228,000.   This level is still significantly under the number that is associated with a recession, but the gain was noticeable. If we begin seeing unemployment claims increases like the one last week, this will be noticed by the Fed and more calls for a rate pause and ultimately reversal will become more pronounced. The JOLTS report showed that job openings fell to under 10 million.  While this is still a very large number, relative to unemployment, the decline reversed the past couple of months that had seen job openings increase.

The other big piece of information over the past two weeks was on the inflation front. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Deflator, came in less than expected.  The Core PCE Deflator, which excludes food and energy, increased by .3%, and this was less than the expected change of .4%.   The year-over-year change was 5%, less than the expected change of 5.1%.  The stock market responded favorably.   The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.2% in November 2022, and has declined to 3.4% since.  A declining Treasury yield signals slower growth and a declining premium for inflation.

Markets are still expecting a rate hike of 25 basis points for the next Fed meeting in May.  We may see a pause if additional economic reports come in weaker than expected.  We are not quite there yet, but it will not surprise me if we see a pause in rate hikes come May.

Welcome New Members | March 2023

Welcome new members that joined or rejoined during the month of March 2023.

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Advocacy Update | 04.05.23

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Welcome to the 1si Advocacy Update!  Every Wednesday while the General Assembly is in session, you will receive an update of 1si’s advocacy efforts. If you missed any of our previous updates from this session, please click here. 

Thank you to everyone that attended our Luncheon with Congresswoman Erin Houchin yesterday – it was a packed event! 

Our sponsors make these efforts possible, and want to give shout outs to MAC Construction as the Presenting Sponsor, Baptist Health Floyd and AT&T Indiana as our Platinum Sponsors, America Place as the Venue Sponsor, and the River Ridge Development Authority as our Gold Sponsor.  

Conversation Recap: 

Congresswoman Erin Houchin participated in a Fireside Chat with our President & CEO, Wendy Dant Chesser, on Monday April 3rd. The topics included the Congresswoman’s transition from the Indiana State Senate to the United States House of Representatives, priority bills that the Congresswoman is currently authoring or help push at the federal level, and how she plans to use her position to be a resource to Southern Indiana. At the end of the Fireside Chat, Congresswoman Houchin fielded a few questions from the audience.  

Congresswoman Houchin noted that usually Freshman Congress Members only are on one committee. However, she is honored to be assigned to three committees:  House Rules Committee, House Financial Services Committee, and the House Education and Workforce Committee. She plans on using her experience in the State Senate and her experience as a small business owner to provide clear and concise direction to each of those committees.  

Congresswoman Houchin does not shy away from her distinction as the first woman elected to represent Indiana’s 9th District. She noted that it is important that young women, especially her children, are able to see her in a leadership role and to dream big as anything can be possible.  

She introduced her key staff members and encourages 1si members to keep up with her activities by clicking the following link to her website.  

1si Advocacy Events: 

1si set a goal of hosting at least three advocacy events each year, including one local, one state, and one federal level event to give our members access to decision and policy makers.  Past events include the Annual State Leadership Breakfast, Luncheon with Governor Holcomb, Luncheon with US Senator Todd Young, Regional Mayor’s Forum, and our Annual Meet Your Local Officials 5’oclock Network. To keep up to date on our Advocacy Events, please click here.  

1si Advocacy Update: 

There are no new updates on bill status. Our Advocacy Leadership Team is still monitoring bills and will make actions as needed as bills relate to our Advocacy Agenda. As a reminder, our 2023 Call to Action includes talent attraction and retention which has four main concerns: Quality of Place, Housing Growth, Availability of Childcare, and Enhance Healthy Lifestyles. 

A few key dates are quickly approaching. The last day for House Bills to be heard in their Senate Committees are April 13 and the last day for Senate Bills to be heard in their House Committees are April 11. These dates are important as bills that do not pass out of committee will die and bills that do pass out of committee have a short window to have both their second and third hearing before the last day for third reading hearings. Third reading deadlines are highlighted below.  

Other key dates that are upcoming:  

  • April 17 – last day for 3rd reading of Senate bills in House 
  • April 18 – last day for 3rd reading of House bills in Senate 
  • April 19-27 – Conference Committees 
  • April 27 – Anticipated Final Day of Session 
  • April 29 – Statutory Sine Die 

We will keep you updated on our actions related to the 2023 Indiana Legislative Session, but for more information on our Advocacy Agenda, please visit www.1si.org/advocacy.