submitted by
Uric Dufrene, Ph.D., Interim Executive Vice Chancellor for Academic Affairs, Sanders Chair in Business, Indiana University Southeast
The one indicator that was moving toward the recession camp was unemployment claims. The Labor Department releases new unemployment claims every Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. and claims had been inching higher the past several months. New claims hit a bottom of 182,000 in September 2022 and climbed to 264,000 in early May 2023. Last Thursday, the report showed that claims for unemployment dropped to 242,000. This was support to the soft-landing crowd and bear market investors were likely not pleased. Levels need to be closer to 350,000 for the declaration of a recession. This is not a rule; only observation from historical patterns. Claims could potentially see a rapid climb, but that is unlikely. Consequently, as we mentioned in the last column, a recession in 2023 is getting increasingly unlikely.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also released the monthly report on state employment and unemployment last week, and Indiana gained 15,800 jobs in April, one of the largest increases among the 50 states. On a year-to-date basis, Indiana has added 38,000 jobs. In the past three recessions, Indiana saw a precipitous decline in payrolls. During 2023 however, jobs have been added at an increasing rate. Professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality were responsible for a significant amount of the payrolls gains. The state’s unemployment rate declined to 3%. Kentucky saw an addition of 7,000 jobs and an unemployment rate decline to 3.7%.
We have more information on inflation since the last column. The CPI declined to 4.9%, still above the Fed preferred range of 2%. The core inflation rate (CPI minus food and energy) came in at 5.5%, suggesting more stickiness in the core rate, which is of greater interest to the Fed. The CPI came in a little less than expected, and the NASDAQ approved with a significant gain for the day. The CPI coming in a little less than expected suggested a pause in Fed hikes for the next meeting, a more favorable condition for growth-oriented stocks. The produce price index (PPI) was released a day after CPI, and it also showed additional slowing of producer inflation. The annual rate declined to 2.3% and was under the expected rate of 2.5%. These two series are highly correlated and historically do not move counter to the other. With a PPI of 2.3%, we can expect CPI to continue the downward trend.
And now for the bad news. The Federal Reserve released the results of the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. The results show a clear tightening of credit standards for consumer and commercial and industrial loans. Along with credit tightening, the results also revealed softening loan demand. When you place this data in a graph, you see a significant increase in credit tightening and a significant decrease in loan demand. Such a graphic pattern is usually followed by a recession. So, as the recession continues to be pushed back further, the senior loan officer opinion survey supported the notion that one will likely occur. To be continued…